292
FXUS62 KJAX 311545
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1145 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

...BECOMING BREEZY AREA-WIDE WITH AN INCREASING RIP CURRENT RISK
AT AREA BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON...
...ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR...
...BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Late morning surface analysis depicts high pressure (1024
millibars) centered over eastern portions of the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. Aloft...troughing was shifting eastward off the New
England and Mid-Atlantic coasts, with a narrow ridge building from
the Tennessee Valley northward through the Great Lakes region in
the wake of this departing trough. To the west of this narrow
ridge, a shortwave trough was progressing slowly east-
southeastward across the Southern Plains states. This feature
triggered a long-lived Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that has
pushed southeastward, currently impacting the upper Texas coast
and southwestern Louisiana. Only a few pockets of mid and high
altitude cloudiness were drifting across our region, with a paltry
cumulus field developing within a strengthening onshore wind flow
regime that is expanding inland. Temperatures at 15Z were climbing
through the low and middle 80s, with dewpoints already falling to
the upper 50s at some inland locations, ranging to the low and mid
60s elsewhere.

High pressure will continue to wedge down the southeastern
seaboard this afternoon, resulting in a tightening local pressure
gradient, which will create breezy east-northeasterly winds that
will expand inland as the afternoon progresses. These breezy
onshore winds will quickly push the Atlantic sea breeze well
inland this afternoon, with this boundary crossing I-75 late this
afternoon and then colliding with a more pinned Gulf coast sea
breeze towards sunset along or just west of the Suwannee River. A
few isolated showers or possibly a short-lived thunderstorm will
be possible along the Suwannee River in Gilchrist and southern
Suwannee Counties towards sunset, with this activity possibly
extending southward to far western portions of Marion County.
Subsidence and an overall dry air mass will keep any low-topped
convection that manages to develop weak and short-lived in nature,
with this activity then pushing west of the Suwannee River after
sunset. Inland highs will generally top out in the upper 80s and
lower 90s, while breezy onshore winds this afternoon keep coastal
highs in the mid 80s. Dewpoints away from the immediate coast will
plunge to the 55-60 range, keeping heat index values in check.

Winds at inland locations will gradually decouple tonight, with
nothing more than occasional thin cirrus clouds spilling into our
area overnight that will be emanating from convection triggered by
the upstream shortwave trough that will progress slowly east-
southeastward from the Ozarks towards the Tennessee and lower
Mississippi Valleys. Fair skies, subsidence, and a dry air mass
will allow lows to fall to around 60 degrees for much of inland
southeast GA, with low to mid 60s expected elsewhere at inland
locations. Onshore winds will be slow to subside at coastal
locations, with some pockets of marine stratocumulus potentially
advecting onshore after midnight. Onshore winds should keep lows
in the lower 70s tonight for coastal locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Northeasterly winds will begin to pick up at TAF sites around 16Z,
with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots. Otherwise VFR conditions are
expected through the TAF period. Low chances of precip near the
I-75 corridor, left off of GNV TAF. Winds will begin to wane by
the 00Z, and become near calm once again during the overnight
hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1145 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

High pressure building southeastward from the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley will wedge down the southeastern seaboard this afternoon,
resulting in strengthening east-northeasterly winds this afternoon.
Small Craft should Exercise Caution this afternoon throughout our
local waters, as winds increase to 15-20 knots. Seas of 3-5 feet
will prevail both near shore and offshore through the weekend.

High pressure center will pivot east-southeastward this weekend,
pushing off the Carolina coast by Saturday afternoon and then
becoming centered near Bermuda by Sunday night. Breezy easterly
winds will prevail across our local waters on Saturday and
Saturday night, followed by winds shifting to southeasterly while
gradually diminishing from Sunday through the early portions of
next week. Only isolated showers are possible on Saturday
afternoon and evening, with isolated showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms early next week.

Rip Currents: Strengthening onshore winds will create a high-end
moderate rip current risk at all area beaches today. Breezy
onshore winds will continue on Saturday, potentially resulting in
a high rip current risk. An elevated risk will likely continue on
Sunday and Monday as onshore winds only gradually diminish.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1145 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

An unseasonably dry air mass will persist across our region
through Saturday, with minimum relative humidity values falling
to around 30 percent at most inland locations this afternoon and
again on Saturday afternoon. East-northeasterly surface and
transport winds will become breezy this afternoon, and these
breezy winds will combine with elevated mixing heights to create
good to marginally high daytime dispersion values at most
locations today and again on Saturday. Surface and transport winds
will shift slightly to easterly on Saturday and then east-
southeasterly on Sunday. Good daytime dispersion values will
likely continue on Sunday at most locations.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1145 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Water levels continue to recede along lower portions of the
Satilla River near the gauge at Atkinson, where water levels will
fall below flood stage on Saturday night. Water levels have also
crested along lower portions of the Santa Fe River near the gauge
at Three Rivers Estates, but minor flooding will continue through
most of the upcoming week due to backwater flooding effects from
action level water levels along lower portions of the Suwannee
River.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  60  88  65 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  84  72  84  73 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  87  63  87  66 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  84  72  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  91  63  90  65 /  10   0  10  10
OCF  92  64  91  66 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$