818
FXUS62 KJAX 021839
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
239 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Scattered showers and storms are anticipated for this afternoon
and into this evening, initially forming along the I-75 corridor
and developing eastward towards the I-95 corridor as stronger
developments form along the diurnal sea breeze boundaries. High
pressure off to the northeast will move further out into the
Atlantic through today and tonight resulting in a more stagnant
flow pattern for the beginning of the week. High temperatures
today will rise up into the mid to upper 80s and potentially reach
into the lower 90s for inland areas and over north central
Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to
upper 60s for inland areas and in the lower 70s for areas along
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Similar set up forecast for Monday and Tuesday as broad low level
ridging builds across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday and
then shifts over Florida Tuesday creating a relatively stagnant
flow. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s, with
the east coast staying a bit cooler than inland with help from the
sea breeze filling in both afternoons. PWATs will rise above
1.5", allowing for scattered to numerous showers area- wide, with
higher chances for thunderstorms in the afternoons as sea breezes
interact.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The east coast will heat up Thursday as winds shift
southwesterly, preventing the Atlantic sea breeze from filling in,
highs along the immediate coast will be able to soar into the
lower to mid 90s Thursday through the weekend. Apparent
temperatures will be able to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s for
most of NE FL. With increased moisture and diurnal heating, daily
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be able to fire up area-
wide during this period. A front will be approaching from the
northwest late this week, however there is still a lot of
uncertainty with its track and impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A band of light showers/rain is moving east across the Suwannee
Valley and SE Georgia. This band may make it into KGNV and KVQQ
but with the strong ESE low level flow and sea breeze coming off
the Atlantic I doubt it makes it much further east than U.S. 301.
A few convergent bands evident over the coastal waters on visible
satellite imagery but not seeing them show up on radar yet. So we
still might see a few showers impinge on the coast with that low
level flow but any that do will be widely scattered. Bottom line,
will keep VCSH at all fields but the chances of any one field
being impacted long enough to justify a TEMPO group is minimal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

High pressure will shift eastward towards Bermuda into the
upcoming week with southeasterly flow continuing through early
next week. Isolated storm chances will return over the local
waters this afternoon and early evening hours. Winds will become
more southerly by midweek and then southwesterly ahead of an
approaching cold front by the end of the week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents continues through
Monday for all area beaches.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Water levels are steadily receding along lower portions of the
Santa Fe River near the gauge at Three Rivers Estates, but minor
flooding will continue through most of the upcoming week due to
backwater flooding effects from action level water levels along
lower portions of the Suwannee River.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  90  69  91 /  20  50  10  50
SSI  73  85  74  85 /  20  40  10  30
JAX  69  88  69  90 /  20  50  10  40
SGJ  71  86  71  88 /  20  50  10  40
GNV  67  91  68  93 /  20  70  10  60
OCF  68  91  68  93 /  20  70  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$