798
FXUS62 KJAX 280112
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
912 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

An outflow boundary has pressed southward across SE GA ahead of
the convective cluster that was heavily impacting Atkinson, Coffee
and Clinch counties this evening. The cooler downdraft outflow
from the gust front will help stabilize the low level airmass as
the surface front across south- central GA this evening shifts
southward across the forecast area through the night. Storm
strength is expected to continue to gradually weaken as the low
level airmass stabilizes with decreasing diurnal instability and
as convection nears NE FL where a persistent subsidence inversion
near 750 mb remained firmly in place this evening per the 00z JAX
sounding.

Passing mid level short wave trough energy over the southward
progressing front will continue a chance of showers and mainly
isolated storms through the night and into Tuesday morning, with
mid level lapse rates of -7 to -8 degC/km maintaining the
potential for a lone strong storm which could produce locally
gusty near 40 mph and small hail. Low level kinematic fields are
not favorable for a widespread strong or severe storm threat.

With increasing cloud cover tonight and westerly flow ahead of the
surface front, low temperatures will trend above normal in the
70s.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Scattered showers and storms forming ahead of the advancing
frontal boundary will gradually push out of the forecast area and
diminish by Tuesday evening with drier and more stable conditions
building in on Wednesday as high pressure following the frontal
passage settles across the forecast area. Strong to severe storms
are not anticipated for Tuesday with convective developments
expected to be more inhibited on Wednesday due to the influence of
high pressure, however scattered to isolated formations cannot be
ruled out at this time. High temperatures through midweek will
rise into the lower to mid 90s with overnight low temperatures
dropping down into the mid to upper 60s over inland areas and in
the lower 70s for coastal areas and along the St Johns River.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Chances for convection will increase by the end of the week and
into the weekend as prevailing flow shifts to become more out of
the north and northeast as high pressure to the north moves
eastward and brings in a more moist onshore flow for the forecast
area. Daily high temperatures will drop below the seasonal average
through the end of the week with overnight low temperatures
remaining at near normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 759 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

No major changes made to the prevailing TAF forecast package with
increasing multi-layered cloudiness through the night and rain
chances increasing first near SSI through 04z, then chances
expanding southward across the NE FL terminals through the rest of
the night and into Tue morning. SSE winds at the coastal terminals
will back SSW to WSW through midnight, with prevailing WSW flow at
inland terminals. Potential restrictions will exist in convection
overnight tonight, otherwise prevailing VFR. Winds begin to shift
WNW after 12z at SSI with drier conditions, then the WNW shift and
drier conditions filter southward across NE FL terminals into
Tuesday afternoon 18-00z. If there is enough break in cloud cover
at the NE FL coast Tuesday afternoon, a weak east coast sea breeze
will likely develop.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

A weak cool front will slide into the waters from the north
Tuesday morning with showers and isolated storms developing ahead
of it overnight tonight. That front will stall south of the waters
Tuesday night and remain there through Thursday as high pressure
builds to the north. Onshore flow will increase toward the end of
the week as high pressure builds northeast and another front
pushes across the water this upcoming weekend. Strengthening flow
should result in rising seas offshore by Sunday.


Rip currents: Low risk is expected Tuesday with low-end Moderate
risk possible with sea breeze development Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Moderate river flooding is forecast end of the week on the Santa
Fe at Three Rivers Estates, just touching the moderate category.
The Satilla River basin remains in Minor Flood stage at Atkinson
(but coming down) and portions of the Suwannee are expected near
Minor Flood stage this week. Minor flooding will be possible
towards mid to late for the lower Santa Fe River near the gauge at
Hildreth.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  72  92  66 /  30  50  10   0
SSI  90  74  91  71 /  10  40  30   0
JAX  94  74  94  69 /  10  30  40   0
SGJ  91  74  94  71 /  10  20  40  10
GNV  93  72  93  67 /   0  20  40   0
OCF  93  73  92  69 /   0  20  50   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$