925
FXUS62 KJAX 011246
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
846 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast on track as easterly flow and dry airmass in place will
continue to limit rainfall chances today. Breezy Easterly flow
will continue at the Atlantic beaches today in the 15-20 mph range
and will pick up to 10-15 mph for inland locations as the East
Coast sea breeze front pushes well inland through the afternoon
hours. Latest Hi-Res models still on track showing isolated
showers and/or storms possible over far inland areas as the East
Coast sea breeze meets up with the Gulf Coast sea breeze along or
just west of the I-75 corridor for inland NE FL and meeting with
possible outflows across inland SE GA late in the afternoon and
through the evening hours. Max temps today will be close to normal
levels as they will be tempered by periods of high clouds at
times with highs in the mid/upper 80s across SE GA and coastal NE
FL, while highs around 90 can be expected across inland NE FL
along the I-75 corridor. A few lingering isolated showers/storms
will be possible into the overnight across far inland areas due
to some localized convergence and a few outflows, while abundant
high clouds will continue as well and overnight lows will be
slightly warmer than this morning, in the mid/upper 60s inland and
lower/middle 70s along the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Southeasterly onshore flow today as high pressure remains
situated over the Carolinas. This will bring another day of
breezy conditions with winds ranging from 10-15 mph with gusts up
to 20-25 mph along inland locations. The onshore flow will help
to push the Atlantic sea breeze well inland towards the I-75
corridor, where interaction with the Gulf sea breeze may lead to
some shower or storm development during the late afternoon into
early evening. Daytime temperatures are expected to get to the
mid 80s along coast to the the I-95 corridor thanks to the
onshore flow bringing in cool maritime air. Warmer temperatures
reaching into the low 90s are expected for the farther inland
locations towards the I-75 corridor. The overnight hours into
Sunday will see temperatures fall into the upper 60s for locations
west of the I-95 corridor, while coastal locations will only fall
into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Moisture will gradually spill in from the west into early next week
as high pressure steadily builds toward Bermuda resulting in local
steering flow to shift southeasterly. This will send the Atlantic
sea breeze well inland each afternoon. On Sunday, spotty showers are
possible from I-95 west with best chances 30-40% along the I-75
corridor where the Gulf breeze will be pinned on Sunday. Steering
flow veers a bit more southerly by Monday allowing a bit more
progression of the Gulf breeze, shifting the corridor of better rain
chances between HWY 301 and I-75. Diurnal instability will be on the
rise as low level moisture begins to increase; however, mid level
lapse rates should be fairly weak given mid level warming behind
a departing shortwave. Mainly anticipate showers but have maintain
isolated garden-variety t`storm mention at this time each
afternoon.

Heat will rebuild Sunday and into Monday with inland highs pushing
to the upper 80s and low 90s once again. Due to the onshore
steering, coastal areas will read cooler, around the mid 80s.
Comfortable morning lows will persist with readings in the mid 60s
inland and low 70s at the coast each morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Moistening will elevate diurnal instability and storm chances
through the lion`s share of the upcoming work week. Fairly weak
background flow pattern will ultimately lead to a sea breeze
dominant pattern with the Atlantic sea breeze in control through
Wednesday. By Thursday, steering flow will begin increase and turn
southwesterly ahead of an approaching front. This will paint better
chances across the First Coast locations into Friday as the Gulf sea
breeze takes the reigns.

Though there is some uncertainty at this lead time, the
aforementioned front will slow as it reaches the forecast area
Friday night and may stall across northern FL through the weekend.
Overall, no significant signal of significant rainfall or severe
t`storm event through next week.

Temperatures will build under amplifying ridge aloft, with readings
in the low to mid 90s through Wednesday which will spread to the
beaches Thursday and Friday as that southwesterly flow ensues.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the upcoming TAF period.
Elevated winds as onshore flow steadily shifts to be from the
southeast around 15-16Z, with gusts nearing the 20-25 knot mark.
Winds will begin to wane after sunset, as high clouds begin to
move into the area, but still at VFR heights.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

High pressure will build off of the Carolinas this afternoon into
Sunday with winds turning more southeasterly. The high will shift
near Bermuda early next week with lighter southeasterly winds
turning southerly midweek with isolated thunderstorms returning to
the waters in the afternoon and early evening as a cold front
approaches from the northwest on Friday with winds turning
southwesterly.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches
today, with high end moderate for NE FL beaches as southeasterly
onshore flow brings the risk close to high. Moderate risk remains
on Sunday as onshore flow begins to weaken.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Fairly dry conditions continue for inland zones today with
gradually moistening conditions through the week with afternoon
humidities trending higher day after day. Easterly winds and deep
mixing, especially inland, will lead to pockets of high
dispersion. Dispersions moderate Sunday and Monday as transport
flow trends lighter. Beginning Sunday and continuing through the
upcoming week, spotty afternoon convection should develop along
the sea breezes each day with isolated t`storms possible. Coverage
of showers will not be substantial and unlikely to saturate the
currently dry fuels.&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Water levels continue to recede along lower portions of the
Satilla River near the gauge at Atkinson, where water levels will
fall below flood stage by this afternoon to evening. Water levels
have already begun to recede along lower portions of the Santa Fe
River near the gauge at Three Rivers Estates, but minor flooding
will continue through most of the upcoming week due to backwater
flooding effects from action level water levels along lower
portions of the Suwannee River.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Water levels continue to recede along lower portions of the
Satilla River near the gauge at Atkinson, where water levels will
fall below flood stage by this afternoon to evening. Water levels
have already begun to recede along lower portions of the Santa Fe
River near the gauge at Three Rivers Estates, but minor flooding
will continue through most of the upcoming week due to backwater
flooding effects from action level water levels along lower
portions of the Suwannee River.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  67  87  67 /  10  10  30  10
SSI  82  74  83  73 /   0  10  20  20
JAX  86  69  87  69 /   0  10  30  10
SGJ  85  71  86  71 /  10  10  20  20
GNV  89  67  90  68 /  10  10  40  10
OCF  91  67  91  68 /  10  10  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$