Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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553 FXUS62 KJAX 251828 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 228 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 ...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH OF I-10... ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A westerly flow along with mostly sunny skies this afternoon have prompted deeper mixing and temperatures have soared to low and mid 90s with peak heat index values pushing to near triple-digits, particularly right at the coast. Given the holiday weekend and outdoor festivities, heat-related impacts and illness will be more of risk - stay cool and hydrated! In addition to the heat, there will be increasing rain and storm chances this afternoon as moisture accompanying a shortwave drops southeastward into SE GA and then continues into NE FL this evening. As it does so, an associated MCS to the northwest will push out sufficient outflow and should initiate new convection to the west which will drift southeastward into inland SE GA around 2-4 pm. The latest CAM guidance has trended a bit more energetic with the MCS propagation, with potential for the system to reach the I-10 corridor around 6-8 PM. There an additional interaction with the sea breezes should expand t`storm chances to 30-50% along the I-95 corridor through the evening. Embedded storms associated with the MCS could become strong or marginally severe. The primary threat with any robust storms will be strong, localized outflow wind or downburst gusts around 40-60 MPH. Anticipate storms to generally track southeastward around 15-20 mph and eventually fade while shifting into the Atlantic late this evening. Given the motion, flooding threat will be quite low; however, nuisance ponding in poor drainage areas remains possible due to brief, heavy downpours. Tonight, diurnal convection will fade with perhaps a few trailing showers through about midnight. Cloud cover will scatter to the south, leaving mostly clear skies through the early hours Sunday. Under the mostly clear sky, patchy fog will be possible again and focus toward the Suwannee Valley and inland SE GA areas but shallow fog may develop wherever sufficient downpours occur this afternoon and evening. Lows tonight will hover in the low 70s inland and mid 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 With an upper level ridge extending across the Gulf of Mexico, west- southwest steering flow will be in place, before a cold front begins to move in from the northwest late Monday. Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected, with a few showers possible as the Gulf coast sea breeze meets up with the Atlantic sea breeze along the east coast during the late afternoon into early evening on Sunday. Otherwise, the next chance of showers will be from late Monday afternoon into evening along the northern SE GA counties ahead of an incoming cold front nears the area. Temperatures will be on the warmer side, with Sunday seeing the warmer daytime temperatures. The highest temperatures will be focused toward the I-95 corridor as daytime temperatures will range in the low to mid 90s with heat index values around 100 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 On Tuesday a cold front will make its way the area, bringing scattered showers and storms to spread from SE GA and south to NE FL. The possibility for stronger storms Tuesday afternoon as some passing shortwaves aloft will bring some instability and additional lift to the area. By Wednesday the front will shift to central FL and eventually stalling over central FL, bringing chances of convection over the north central FL counties, with the potential for scattered showers and storms on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will begin to `cool` a bit after the cold front`s passage. The drier air mass will bring a return of cool morning lows in the 60s for the latter half of next week. Highs will then range from the upper 80s in SE GA to the mid 90s in north-central FL. | && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS) Issued at 134 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Diurnal cumulus has develop ahead of a disturbance that will drop southeastward into the region this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm impacts are possible at most airfields, however confidence is highest for sites along the I-95 corridor north of KSGJ. Outside of convection, VFR conditions will persist with increasing cirrus being pushed out from upwind storms. West winds will be dominant at inland airfields through the afternoon while coastal sites shift ESE to SE with the slow-moving Atlantic sea breeze that should stall near the I-95. By midnight, convection will fizzle and clouds will scatter out allowing patchy fog to develop inland. Any fog that develops will quickly erode after sunrise with VFR conditions and light winds thereafter. && .MARINE... Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 .MARINE...Tranquil boating conditions are expected through the weekend with high pressure in the area and prevailing offshore flow. Afternoon sea breeze development is anticipated each afternoon. The main concern will be the potential for thunderstorms mainly during the early evening hours tonight which could contain strong winds. Storm chances lessen Sunday and Monday before being renewed by an incoming cold front Tuesday. RIP CURRENTS...Moderate risk continues through Monday due to increased crowds at area beaches. Despite low surf (less than 2 feet) and weak swell, rip currents are still possible especially near piers and jetties. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Moderate river flooding due to `backwater` is forecast to begin next week from Thursday to Friday for the Santa Fe at Three Rivers Estates (lower Santa Fe basin). The Satilla River basin remains in Minor Flood stage and portions of the Suwannee are expected to rise into Minor Flood stage by early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 93 71 92 / 20 10 0 30 SSI 74 90 73 92 / 30 10 0 10 JAX 72 94 70 94 / 40 10 0 10 SGJ 73 92 71 94 / 40 0 0 0 GNV 69 94 68 93 / 10 0 0 10 OCF 70 94 68 93 / 10 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$