819
FXUS62 KJAX 030004
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
804 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 804 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Periods of MVFR visibilities will be possible overnight at VQQ.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals.
Brief periods of MVFR ceilings will be possible on Monday morning,
with a brief shower possibly moving onshore from the Atlantic
waters over the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals and the Duval
County terminals, but confidence was only high enough to include
vicinity showers at this time. Widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop along the inland
moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary on Monday afternoon, mainly
for locations along and west of the U.S. Highway 301 corridor
after 17Z. This activity could impact GNV, but enough uncertainty
with regards to coverage and intensity remains for nothing more
than vicinity shower coverage to be included at the inland
terminals at this time. Activity could linger around GNV past
sunset on Monday evening, with VFR conditions otherwise expected
to continue at the regional terminals. Southeasterly surface winds
sustained around 10 knots early this evening will gradually
diminish overnight. Southerly surface winds will then increase to
around 5 knots after sunrise, followed by winds shifting to east-
southeasterly and increasing to around 10 knots by 19Z.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Scattered showers and storms are anticipated for this afternoon
and into this evening, initially forming along the I-75 corridor
and developing eastward towards the I-95 corridor as stronger
developments form along the diurnal sea breeze boundaries. High
pressure off to the northeast will move further out into the
Atlantic through today and tonight resulting in a more stagnant
flow pattern for the beginning of the week. High temperatures
today will rise up into the mid to upper 80s and potentially reach
into the lower 90s for inland areas and over north central
Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to
upper 60s for inland areas and in the lower 70s for areas along
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Similar set up forecast for Monday and Tuesday as broad low level
ridging builds across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday and
then shifts over Florida Tuesday creating a relatively stagnant
flow. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s, with
the east coast staying a bit cooler than inland with help from the
sea breeze filling in both afternoons. PWATs will rise above
1.5", allowing for scattered to numerous showers area- wide, with
higher chances for thunderstorms in the afternoons as sea breezes
interact.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The east coast will heat up Thursday as winds shift
southwesterly, preventing the Atlantic sea breeze from filling in,
highs along the immediate coast will be able to soar into the
lower to mid 90s Thursday through the weekend. Apparent
temperatures will be able to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s for
most of NE FL. With increased moisture and diurnal heating, daily
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be able to fire up area-
wide during this period. A front will be approaching from the
northwest late this week, however there is still a lot of
uncertainty with its track and impacts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

High pressure will shift eastward towards Bermuda into the
upcoming week with southeasterly flow continuing through early
next week. Isolated storm chances will return over the local
waters this afternoon and early evening hours. Winds will become
more southerly by midweek and then southwesterly ahead of an
approaching cold front by the end of the week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents continues through
Monday for all area beaches.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Water levels are steadily receding along lower portions of the
Santa Fe River near the gauge at Three Rivers Estates, but minor
flooding will continue through most of the upcoming week due to
backwater flooding effects from action level water levels along
lower portions of the Suwannee River.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  90  69  91 /  20  50  10  50
SSI  73  85  74  85 /  20  40  10  30
JAX  69  88  69  90 /  20  50  10  40
SGJ  71  86  71  88 /  20  50  10  40
GNV  67  91  68  93 /  20  70  10  60
OCF  68  91  68  93 /  20  70  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$