682
FXUS63 KJKL 020030 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
830 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level disturbance approaching from the west will bring
  showers and thunderstorms to the region through the remainder of
  this weekend.

- Weather conditions will become warmer and continue to be
  unsettled during the week. After a relative lull in
  precipitation Monday, the potential of showers and thunderstorms
  will again increase through mid week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2024

23Z sfc analysis shows low pressure moving into the Ohio Valley to
the northeast of the area. This is pushing a broken areas of
showers into eastern Kentucky this evening with a potential for a
stray thunderstorm or two, but mainly showers. Under mostly cloudy
skies, temperatures are running in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Meanwhile, amid generally light winds from the south, dewpoints
are mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Have updated the
forecast mainly to add in the latest radar and CAMs trends for
PoPs and thunder through the night. Did also include the current
obs and tendencies for the T/Td/Sky grids with this update. These
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 245 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2024

A slow-moving disturbance crosses the region tonight through much of
Sunday bringing light rain and occasional showers. By Sunday night
mid-level ridging builds over the area despite low-level westerly
upslope flow and moisture transport into the region. Instability
will remain limited despite sufficient moisture for thunderstorms
through Sunday morning. However, sun breaks will develop by late
Sunday morning into the afternoon and yield widespread weak
instability with possibly isolated areas of moderate instability,
which should support at least widely scattered thunderstorm
development.

Lows tonight will be on the warmer side with clouds and light shower
activity, with upper 50s to lower 60s and little in the way of a
temperature spread between ridges and valleys. Highs Sunday are
expected in the mid to upper 70s with clouds and a few sun breaks
followed by afternoon shower and thunderstorm development.

Upper ridging builds over the region Sunday night, but low-level
moisture transport will continue into the region from the west,
keeping lows on the mild side with upper 50s to lower 60s. Fog
extent will depend on any partial clearing that may develop. For
now, will carry patchy to areas of fog in the grids and zone
forecasts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2024

Fairly active pattern will be in place across the CONUS to begin
the extended. A trough of low pressure is currently progged to be
exiting the Mid-Atlantic region and heading out to sea early
Monday. A ridge of high pressure will be in place over the eastern
quarter of the country during this time, and will extend from
southeastern Canada all the way southward into the central Gulf of
Mexico. Most of that region should be dry, but a few showers and
storms may fire in the unstable air over the northeastern Gulf and
parts of Florida to start things off. A weak trough of low
pressure, and the cold front extending southward from it, are
expected to move out of the eastern Plains and through the mid-
Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and upper Ohio Valley Monday
through Tuesday. Scattered showers and storms will be possible
during this time, as the sluggish system interacts with the warm,
moist air that will be in place ahead of it. As this first system
washes out, another, stronger area of low pressure will be moving
across southern Canada and the northern Plains late Tuesday and
Tuesday night. This system should bring more widespread rain to
the region as it moves eastward. After seeing a brief decrease in
the rain Tuesday evening, PoPs should again increase late Tuesday
night, as the next system moves in. We will see a steady increase
in coverage of showers and storms through the day, with rain
chances peaking in the afternoon and evening hours, as the cold
front moves through while heating and instability area also at a
maximum. The rain will linger into Thursday night through early
Saturday, as the upper low intensifies and slows up a bit just to
our east and weak shortwaves rotate around its western periphery.

Temperatures will be slightly above average the first four days of
the period, with highs maxing out in the low to mid 80s during
that time. After the second upper trough moves off to our east
late in the week, we should see daily maxes cooling to more normal
values in the upper 70s around eastern Kentucky. Nightly lows will
be in the 60s during the warmest nights and in the 50s during the
coolest. We could see modest ridge valley differences Monday night
and Thursday, as winds become fairly light and skies clear off a
bit. The only thing resembling a concern in the extended is the
marginal risk of excessive rainfall the WPC currently has in place
for the period Wednesday through Thursday. There is a slight(15%) chance
that locally heavy rainfall could occur mid-week, especially for
locations where multiple thunderstorms move through in a short
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2024

The current VFR sky cover will gradually lower to mainly low-end
VFR CIGs after this evening in -SHRA, with some MVFR (or lower)
CIGs developing late tonight into Sunday morning for the western
parts of the area, before most likely returning to at least low-
VFR CIGs by Sunday afternoon. A few thunderstorms are possible,
mainly tonight, and primarily west of Interstate 75. Winds will be
generally light and variable through the forecast period. Also,
be on the look out for some LLWS from the south at 35 kts in the
westernmost terminals like KSME later tonight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF