187
FXUS63 KJKL 010936 CCA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
536 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level disturbance approaching from the west, along with
  a return of more humid air, will bring showers and possibly
  thunderstorms back to the area during the weekend.

- Weather conditions will become warmer and continue to be
  unsettled during the week. After a relative lull in
  precipitation Monday, the potential of showers and thunderstorms
  will again increase through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 532 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2024

Ridging at the surface and aloft is departing to our east early
this morning. As this happens, an upper level trough stretching
from the mid Mississippi Valley to the FL panhandle is approaching
from the west, and low level flow is carrying gulf moisture
northward on isentropic lift ahead of the trough. This is
resulting in a large area of light rain with embedded heavier
showers in that area.

The regime will shift eastward with time. Morning sun filtered
through high clouds will give way to thickening clouds in our
area today, and rain is expected to begin arriving in our western
counties this afternoon, and then likely move over the rest of
the area during the evening into the late night hours. Forecast
soundings initially look stable, and the mention of thunder was
restrained during the afternoon and evening. Can`t rule out
thunder overnight, and a slight chance was allowed in the
forecast. The slow moving regime will likely bring more rain on
Sunday, but timing of the highest probability during the day is
uncertain. Soundings show some instability on Sunday, especially
if a bit of heating can occur, and a chance of thunder was
included.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 532 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2024

General agreement among operational models with the pattern aloft
through the extended. Ridging and surface high pressure will yield
to a weakening disturbance that will drift from west to east across
the region at the start of the extended, or late Monday through
Tuesday. Coincident with this time frame, a low will be riding into
the northwestern CONUS from the Pacific, through the Northern
Rockies and into the Plains. This feature takes on a negative tilt
as it tracks eastward along the Northern Tier and into the Upper
Great Lakes region. As a result, additional short wave energy will
enter into the Lower Ohio Valley by late Tuesday or Tuesday night,
and across the Commonwealth on Wednesday. The low sets up residence
over the Great Lakes for the remainder of the period, sending
additional short wave impulses around the southern periphery of the
mean low, into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, eastern Kentucky
resides in a warm sector through the bulk of the extended, or until
a relatively strong cold front for this time of the year sweeps
through the area by the end of the period, probably sometime during
the Thursday night to Friday window of time.

Sensible weather features a return to an unsettled pattern, with an
opportunity of showers and thunderstorms just about every day of the
period, with Monday being the least likely day of seeing rainfall.
Temperatures will be quite warm through the period, mid to upper 80s
for daily high temperatures until the end of the week. Temperatures
cool back into the 70s for highs after the aforementioned cold front
passes through the area. Overnight lows will run generally in the
60s, but cooling well into the 50s at the end of the forecast as
high pressure ushers in drier air and pleasantly cool conditions.

No solid signals with respect to hazards through the period.
Ensemble probabilistic data suggests nothing in the way of heavy
rain, with only a 40-50% chance of rainfall totals GTE to a half
inch with the mid week system. Probabilities of an inch or more are
around 10% or less. At present, WPC`s (forecast) QPF leans towards
the upper end of those ranges with general 0.5-1.0 inches of
rainfall in the forecast from Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
Considering the time of year and that much of the area continues to
run at or just a bit below normal on rainfall (southwestern zones
being the exception), do not expect this would cause any hydro
issues across the area. Thunderstorms will be possible through the
period as well, with a noticeable diurnal flavor to the activity.
Thunderstorms are most likely Wednesday as MLCAPEs climb to around
1000 J/kg. However, at this time effective shear is marginal at
best, around 35 kts or less. Considering that the system coming into
the region appears to take on a negatively tilted structure, meaning
a more dynamic system, one might expect the environmental conditions
to become more favorable for storms with future forecast cycles,
thus it will be worth watching.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2024

VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period, with high but
mostly thin clouds streaming through the sky. The clouds are thin
enough to allow good radiating, and this should lead to localized
valley fog by dawn, mainly in southeast KY. The fog is not
forecast to affect TAF sites and will dissipate shortly after
sunrise. The clouds will lower and thicken overall with time,
with mainly low end VFR ceilings expected by the end of the
forecast period. Showers will also develop in the area from west
to east late today and this evening, becoming more numerous with
time. Localized sub-VFR conditions may develop toward the end of
the period due to showers.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL