278
FXUS63 KJKL 302036
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
436 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures and dry weather can be expected
  through the rest of the work week.

- It will become warmer and more humid with chances of showers and
  thunderstorms returning from late Saturday into the middle of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 341 PM EDT THU MAY 30 2024

Highly amplified ridging moves across the forecast area through
Saturday afternoon bringing dry and comfortable weather.

Backdoor cool front has moved into the region from the north on the
downstream side of the high pressure centered to the north this
morning and early afternoon. A reinforcing cool front drops south
across the forecast area and will bring an even drier air mass to
region after midnight tonight and lasting through much of Friday
before modifying late Friday night as return flow begins to usher
increasing humidity back into the region.

With the dry air mass moving over the area tonight, excellent
radiational cooling is expected with widespread lows in the 40s,
with a few lower 40s reading in the typically coldest most sheltered
valleys. Warmer overnight temperatures in the upper 40s to near 60
degrees are expected Friday night as flow aloft begins a warming and
moistening trend. Highs Friday will reach the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 436 PM EDT THU MAY 30 2024

The 30/12z model suite analysis beginning Saturday morning shows
500H ridging extending from the Carolinas northward across the
Central Appalachians/Eastern Great Lakes up into Quebec toward
Labrador. The first of multiple shortwave troughs will be
approaching the Lower and Mid-Mississippi River. At the surface,
high pressure will be centered over the North Carolina Piedmont
with ridging extending northward across the Appalachians into
Saint Lawrence River Valley. To our west, weak ~1010 mb low
pressure is found over the Ozarks.

Ridging aloft and at the surface quickly departs on Saturday as the
aforementioned low tracks north of the Ohio River and lifts a warm
front into eastern Kentucky. This will bring increasing moisture
followed by rising PoPs and a chance for thunder. The low pressure
system`s weak cool front follows quickly across Eastern Kentucky on
Sunday as the low passes into the Eastern Great Lakes. This will
result in thunder chances and likely PoPs late Saturday over
western portions of the forecast area with a gradual translation
of the higher precipitation chances to the east southeast Saturday
night and Sunday as the weak front sinks southeastward. Weak
shear and mid-level lapse rates suggest that any convection will
be more of the garden variety.

Upper level disturbances will keep diurnally modulated weak
convection in the forecast on both Monday and Tuesday. Better
shower and thunderstorm chances should return on Wednesday and
persist into Thursday as a more substantial upper level low closes
off over the Northern Plains and drifts our way. Models offer
varying solutions as to how this system evolves leading to a low
confidence forecast toward the end of the period. A common theme
however is for this low to translate/propagate southeastward to
somewhere over the eastern or southeastern CONUS, sending a cold
front across our region late in the period.

In more sensible terms, rain will become likely from the west on
Saturday/Saturday evening (60-70% chance) as showers and
thunderstorms arrive with a warm front. The threat for rainfall
will persist overnight before slowly tapering from the northwest
on Sunday with the passage of a weak cold front. All of the
precipitation and associated cloud cover will keep daily highs
very seasonable, generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s while
nighttime lows range in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible (30 to 50% chance) at times on Monday
and Tuesday, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours, as
disturbances pass. Mostly to partly sunny skies should yield highs
in the lower to middle 80s each afternoon with mild nights in the
lower to middle 60s. More widespread rainfall is possible mid to
late week with the arrival of a cold front and upper level low but
the specific details remain obscure due to poor model agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT THU MAY 30 2024

VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the TAF
period under surface high pressure. With nearly ideal radiational
cooling conditions, expect there will be some patchy fog develop
in the typical valley locations from midnight to just after dawn.
With relatively low coverage, have left out of the TAFs for
now, though can`t rule out very brief visibility restrictions
near dawn Friday, especially at SYM, SME, and SJS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...CMC