739
FXUS63 KJKL 021927
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
327 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level disturbance approaching from the west will bring
  showers and thunderstorms to the region today, followed by a
  decrease in activity for tonight and Monday.

- After a relative lull in precipitation Monday night into Tuesday
  morning, the potential of showers and thunderstorms will again
  increase through mid week, with temperatures trending 5-10
  degrees above normal.

- Temperatures will return to near seasonal averages by late in
  the week, with at least small rain chances lingering at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 248 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity will slowly wane with the loss of
daytime heating this evening, with weak westerly flow aloft as upper-
level ridging builds over the area. Any amount of clearing will
result in the formation of widespread patchy to areas of fog, some
of which could be dense in the typically fog-prone sheltered valley
locations. With high humidity expected, lows will range from the mid
50s to lower 60s.

Despite upper-level ridging overhead Monday, a weak mid-level
disturbance will combine with marginal instability to produce
isolated to widely scattered rain showers and possibly a few
afternoon thunderstorms, with the highest likelihood of seeing
storms over the eastern Kentucky mountains bordering Virginia. With
sun breaks in the afternoon highs will reach the lower to mid 80s at
most locations.

Upper-level ridge axis moves just east over the Appalachians and
Upper Ohio River Valley Monday night, with increasing southerly flow
ahead of the next disturbance. However, it appears any
precipitation chances will arrive after the short-term period
ends. Nevertheless, expect another night of patchy to widespread
fog in the valleys, with lows falling into the upper 50s for most
valley locations and lower to mid 60s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Fairly active pattern anticipated in the extended, with multiple
rounds of rain in the forecast. The large scale pattern aloft will
start off with a couple of troughs of low pressure in place over
the western half of the CONUS. One trough will be moving on shore
in far southwestern Canada and the Pacific Northwest Tuesday
morning, with very weak, flat ridging in place between the two
troughs extending southward into the extreme southwestern CONUS.
Another trough of low pressure will be spinning its wheels just
offshore from northern New England, and will gradually make its
way on out to sea i the northern Atlantic. A weak subtropical
ridge will also be in place just off the southeastern CONUS, with
weak, broad, flat ridging in place across northern Mexico and the
western half of the Gulf of Mexico.

Our first weather maker will be the trough that will be moving
eastward along the Canadian border from just north of Montana to
begin the period. This trough will have a cold front extending
southward from it, which will act as a trigger for showers and
storms once it finally moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. We may see our first showers and storms,
however, in the moist and unstable warm sector of the northern
cyclone ahead of the approaching cold front on Tuesday. This
activity will steadily increase in coverage Wednesday and
Wednesday night, as the surface front approaches and then moves
across the region. Rain chances should peak Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday evening, before tapering off late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, as the front moves off to our east.

The parent trough will initially move across southern Canada, but
will slow and strengthen Wednesday night, producing a strong short
wave that is progged to break off from the original parent trough.
This second area of low pressure is forecast to itself strengthen
as it moves through the Great Lakes and into New England toward
the end of week. Waves of energy associated with this second
system will move over our area Thursday and Friday, and will keep
scattered showers and isolated storms in the area to finish out
the week and on into the upcoming weekend.

Temperatures will be average to just a bit above average in the
extended, with the first half of the period being much warmer
before the arrival of the aforementioned upper troughs. Highs the
first few days will top out in the 80s, with closer to normal
values in the upper 70s on tap Friday through Sunday. Nightly lows
will be mild and in the mid to upper 60s the first couple of
nights, but should level off at near normal values in the mid 50s
to lower 60s the rest of the period. No real weathers concerns in
the extended at this time, although the WPC is still carrying a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall for our region for Wednesday
and Wednesday night, which is low confidence at this time
considering how far out in time the part of the forecast still is.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024

An area of showers is moving across the forecast area producing
MVFR/IFR cigs currently. These showers will continue to move east
and out of the area over the next couple of hours. However, with
partial clearing will come increased destabilization and the
development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. KSME
and KLOZ are the mostly likely areas to see thunderstorms, but any
TAF site will be susceptible to TSRA with brief/temporary
reductions to IFR or lower conditions. What`s left of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to die out during the evening, and
clouds should begin to decrease. This will set us up for fog and
low clouds developing late tonight, resulting in IFR or worse
conditions for most locations.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC