Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
697 FXUS62 KKEY 300241 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1041 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1040 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 There`s an air of deja vu around tonight with muggy and quiet conditions similar to that of yesterday evening. Synoptic features at play remain generally the same with a deep layer trough along the east coast of CONUS with ridging centered about the west coast of Mexico and a surface high barely extending to the Bahamas. This has resulted in another round of light and variable winds along the island chain with a somewhat cyclonic twist as northwesterly winds become more southwesterly west to east along the Reef. KBYX radar has been decently echo free in our area since some brief showers earlier today, but that was not the case on mainland Florida this evening. An elevated shortwave trough slid across Central Florida causing a few rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms along the daily seabreeze boundary. While one of these storms did sit on the Bay near Key Largo and the eastern Hawk Channel earlier this evening, it quickly dissolved once away from its source of lift. Overnight aims to be drier than last night. This evening`s 00z sounding returned with a decrease in PW from yesterday falling to now 1.30 inches. While there doesn`t seem to be much of a capping inversion, the lower levels of the sounding look drier and almost worked over. ML CAPE is also a pitiful 250 J/kg with CIN greater than -100. The shortwave that fanned the flames of convection over mainland is progged to continue east into the western North Atlantic thus keeping any upper level support for convection north of our area. CAMs are also not as excited as yesterday and are only spitting out a few measly showers near the island chain after midnight. Considering they have tended to over perform near the Keys today (and last night), its hard to put any serious faith in them. Opted to keep our low end slight chance PoPs as a result. No changes to the forecast were required at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1040 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys. From synopsis, light to gentle, generally variable breezes are expected through Thursday. High pressure currently over south- central Canada will emerge off the Mid- Atlantic coast by the end of the work week. This will result in fresh northeast to east breezes beginning as early as Friday night, lasting through early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH tonight and into tomorrow. Rain chances are less than last night with some CAMs suggesting a few shallow showers developing near the island chain after midnight. Due to low coverage and high uncertainty in timing and location, have opted to leave them out of either TAF. Winds will be light and variable, becoming northeast to east. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 92 81 92 / 10 10 20 20 Marathon 82 90 82 89 / 10 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest