979
FXUS62 KKEY 290830
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
430 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024
CIMSS mean layer shows a ridge over the Bay of Campeche into
Mexico with another one centered over the Lesser Antilles with
weak troughing in between. The eastern Gulf of Mexico, much of
Florida and Cuba were underneath this weak upper level troughing
as the main trough is further north over the Mid-Atlantic states.
A weak upper level shortwave was moving east-southeastward within
the upper level flow which touched off showers and thunderstorms
for Miami`s area as well as points just northeast of the Keys.
Looking at GOES 16 Nighttime Microphysics imagery, there is a
cloud line present to the north of the Chain. This cloud line
extends from the Florida Mainland southwestward to just south of
the Dry Tortugas. KBYX radar is showing some showers waxing and
waning along this boundary this morning as we have the
aforementioned weak shortwave overhead along with some convergence
on this boundary. It has also been another very warm overnight
with temperatures along the Chain in the lower to mid 80s with Big
Pine Key down to 76 degrees. Dew points are in the mid 70s
keeping the very muggy feel out there. At the surface, just enough
ridging extends into the Florida Keys associated with a high over
the Atlantic. As a result, marine platforms are observing
southeast to south breezes near 5 knots and near 5 mph on land.

.FORECAST...
Over the next few days, the weak upper troughing present over
much of Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to
result in episodes of showers and thunderstorms as weak shortwaves
traverse through the flow. However, most of this activity is
expected to remain over South Florida with perhaps some these
showers and storms occasionally drifting southward into the Upper
Keys. With that said, the Upper Keys have the best chances of
seeing rain over the next few days compared to the Middle and
Lower Keys. Therefore, slight chances were maintained from the
previous package.

Beginning Friday and continuing into early next week, a strong
surface high pressure system will build southward across the
eastern United States and into Florida. This is expected to result
in a breezy period with winds out of the northeast to east
direction. Accompanying the northeast to easterly flow will be an
increase in moisture, especially in the low levels resulting in
chances of rain Saturday through Tuesday. Model relative humidity
cross sections also show a substantial increase to the lower level
moisture over the weekend into early next week. Also, this will
be accompanied by a cooldown and drop in the humidity with dew
points dropping into the upper 60s, perhaps lower which would be
remarkable feat for this time of the year. We will see just how
low they do get though because the waters surrounding the Keys are
very warm.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024
There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect
across the Florida Keys. From synopsis, light to gentle,
generally variable breezes are expected through Thursday. High
pressure currently over south- central Canada will emerge off the
Mid- Atlantic coast by the end of the work week. This will result
in fresh northeast to east breezes beginning as early as Friday
night, lasting through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. With
that said, weak steering currents may allow for the formation of
an island cloud line, and possibly, a few showers. Either of which
may result in spells of sub VFR conditions. Surface winds will be
light and variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  91  81  91  82 /  10  10  10  10
Marathon  91  82  91  82 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....11

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