531
FXUS62 KKEY 011440
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1040 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1034 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
KBYX radar remains quiet this morning as GOES 16 Visible satellite
imagery shows mostly fair weather cumulus clouds streaming from
west to east across the Florida Keys. Temperatures along the
Island Chain are in the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the
lower 70s. When you step outside, there is definitely a
noticeable feel to the air being drier than it was at this time
yesterday as we we experience slightly modified continental air.
Surface high pressure over eastern North Carolina is about to
emerge out into the western North Atlantic which is the main
driver for the sensible weather across the Keys today. This is
resulting in marine platforms observing northeast to east winds of
15 to 20 knots with Island Chain communities observing near 15
mph.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
The 12z morning sounding showed a dry profile from the surface up
to the top of the atmosphere. However, there is an inversion
present around 900 mb with some moistening below this to 930 mb.
Where there is slight moistening on the sounding pairs up nicely
with what we are seeing on visible satellite imagery this morning
with the cloud bases around 3200-4000 ft AGL. The wind profile is
fairly unidirectional with winds mainly out of the east near 20
knots, perhaps with slight veering. CAPE is not that high with
values around 400 J/kg which is lower than at this point yesterday
when it was near 2000 J/kg. Therefore, more stable air has moved
into the Keys when compared to this time yesterday. Also, the PWAT
value measured is quite dry coming in at 1.27 inches which is
below the 25th percentile for the date which is 1.37 inches. Based
on the above, outside of perhaps some speed convergence, thinking
it will remain fairly dry today across the Keys outside of
perhaps a shower or two that tries to form along one of the cloud
streamers. Therefore, no change expected to ongoing forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1034 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Small Craft Should Exercise (SCEC) remains headlined across all
the Florida Keys coastal waters, except for the Straits of Florida
where a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. The Small Craft
remains in effect for seas up to 7 feet in the Gulf Stream. From
synopsis, high pressure over eastern North Carolina will continue
moving southeastward emerging off the coast this afternoon. This
high continues moving further into the western North Atlantic
through the middle of next week. This will result in moderate to
fresh northeast to east breezes through the weekend. Breezes are
expected to slacken during early to mid next week as the
aforementioned high weakens.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1034 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Through 02/12Z, prevailing VFR conditions are expected at both
EYW and MTH. A few rain showers with light to moderate
precipitation may develop after 02/00Z and move within the
vicinity of either MTH or EYW. Cell motion likely would be from
065/15KT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in day in Keys Weather History, the daily record low
of 65F was measured at Marathon in 1955. This measurement tied for
the coldest temperature ever recorded in the month of June.
Temperature records at Marathon date back to 1951.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  40  40
Marathon  87  79  88  79 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
GMZ052>055- 072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....Kasper

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