994
FXUS63 KLBF 210912
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
412 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Lingering widespread rain will keep a localized flooding risk,
  mainly for low-lying areas, around through this morning.

* Cooler temperatures are expected today with highs in the mid 50s
  to low 60s before gradually warming through the end of the week
  (into the 70s by the weekend).

* A marginal risk (level 1 of 5 ) of severe storms is possible on
  Thursday with hail and strong winds as the main threats.

* Additional thunderstorm and rain chances exist through the
  weekend, but the severe risk is uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 408 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Current radar shows widespread rain showers with embedded
thunderstorms continuing across much of north central Nebraska at
this time. This broad area of rain will continue to track eastward
over the next several hours before diminishing by late morning and
early afternoon. With weakened instability across the region, the
severe risk has come to an end as far as a large hail and damaging
wind threat. With rainfall rates of a half inch to 1 inch per hour,
though, a flash flooding risk still remains. Several flood headlines
remain in place across mainly southwest Nebraska where these
locations have seen nearly steady rainfall since mid-evening along
with heavier storms. For now, these headlines are expected to be
expire in the next hour or two as the more intense rainfall pushes
off to the east, but some localized flooding of low lying
areas/ditches as well as small streams could still be possible as
other portions of the forecast area become saturated with continuing
rainfall.

A cooler airmass will also push in behind the departing front today,
and this combined with cloudy conditions and lingering rain will
keep the overall temperatures on the cooler side of guidance for
Tuesday. Highs will range from the mid 50s across the Pine Ridge to
the low 60s across southwest and into central Nebraska. Low
temperatures tonight will also remain chilly ranging from the mid
30s across the eastern Panhandle to the mid 40s east of US-83. These
temperatures will be nearly 10 degrees below normal (normals in the
low to mid 70s).

Weak ridging returns to the region for Wednesday, bringing some
drier and quieter weather for mid-week. Sunny skies and mild warm
air advection into Nebraska will allow for highs to rise into the
upper 60s to low 70s which is still a few degrees below
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 408 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Quiet weather will be short lived as the next potential weather
system arrives on Thursday. A developing upper level low will push
off the the Rockies and move into Nebraska on Thursday afternoon. As
the upper level trough deepens and the low becomes more developed, a
front will get dragged across Nebraska on Thursday evening. At this
time the best instability appears to be across eastern Nebraska so
there is some uncertainty remaining in how much instability will be
around southwest and north central Nebraska to support severe
thunderstorms. However, a stronger storm capable of at least small
hail and briefly gusty winds is entirely possible regardless of an
environment supportive of severe convection. Current SPC outlook
supports this as they have highlighted areas generally east of US-83
in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5). Be advised that this outlook may
change over the next few days as the environment becomes sampled and
we get a better look at how thunderstorm development may occur on
Thursday.

A series of disturbances will continue to impact Nebraska through
the weekend.  At this time, severe weather risk remains uncertain
with confidence remaining low on timing, track, and locations. Will
continue to monitor these systems as the week progresses and those
with outside plans in the evening should stay weather aware and be
prepared to make alternate plans.

For temperatures, a warmer day on Thursday with temperatures above
normal in the mid 70s to low 80s will quickly be followed by another
cooler day in the 60s on Friday. Temperatures moderate back to near
normals through the weekend. Low temperatures will remain fairly
steady in the 40s through the weekend with the only cooler night
being Thursday night (temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s) as
the cold front pushes through.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Expect occasional thunderstorms for both the KLBF and KVTN
terminals through daybreak. Wind gusts up to 45 KTS are possible
at the KLBF terminal through 08z overnight. The threat for
showers will continue through Tuesday morning with ceilings
below 1000 FT AGL at the KLBF and KVTN terminals. Ceilings will
climb to MVFR levels Tuesday afternoon before clouds scatter out
Tuesday evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for NEZ038-
057>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Buttler