571
FXUS63 KLBF 240759
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
259 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a dry 24 hours, precipitation chances will increase Saturday
afternoon and continue through Memorial Day. There is a threat for
severe storms Saturday night.

- After dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, the threat for
  precipitation will return Wednesday night into Thursday.
  Temperatures will also warm into the upper 70s and low 80s
  midweek next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

H5 analysis tonight had a closed low over far northeastern
Wyoming, with a shortwave trough extending south southwest to
Grand Junction Colorado. North of this feature, a secondary area
of low pressure was located along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba
border. Further east, another low was located over the southern
tip of Hudson Bay. A secondary shortwave trough was present off
the coast of northern California. The Wyoming low, forced a cold
front through western and north central Nebraska earlier
tonight. Thunderstorms in association with the front, were
severe with tornadoes and large hail being reported from the
eastern panhandle into southwestern Nebraska. Showers and
thunderstorms have since exited the area. Skies were mostly
clear west of a line from Valentine to Broken Bow with cloudy
skies east of this line. Temperatures as of 2 AM CDT ranged from
44 degrees at Gordon, to 56 degrees at Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Upper level low pressure, mentioned above over northeastern
Wyoming, will track to the east northeast across northern South
Dakota into northwestern Minnesota today. For this morning,
surface high pressure located over central Wyoming, and low
pressure over northeastern South Dakota, will put northern
Nebraska in a nice surface pressure gradient this morning.
Looking at bufkit data for Valentine, there are some mixed layer
winds approaching 50 MPH this morning. This is on the higher
end of of the forecast envelope as the HRRR has gust potential
in these areas to 45 MPH. The latest ensemble NBM probabilistic
forecast has a zero percent chance of wind gusts above 40 MPH
this morning in northern Nebraska. That being said, will limit
wind gusts this morning to around 40 to 45 MPH in northern
Nebraska which is more in line with the slower HRRR and ensemble
probabilistic forecast. Winds will begin to relax by midday as
surface high pressure builds into the panhandle then
southwestern Nebraska later this afternoon. Highs this afternoon
will range from the upper 60s in the north to the lower 70s in
the south. High pressure will track into northern Missouri
tonight. On the back side of this feature, southerly winds will
increase overnight with a nice 50KT low level jet developing
from western Kansas into northwestern Nebraska. Was somewhat
concerned about a small threat for precipitation overnight,
given the degree of mid level warm air advection, which lifts
from southwestern into central and northern Nebraska. However,
moisture return will hold off until daybreak on Saturday,
mitigating the threat for precipitation tonight. By late morning
Saturday, enough moisture should flow into the area to support
a chance for showers across northern Nebraska. This is where the
best mid level warm air advection coencides with moisture. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s, while highs Saturday
will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

An upper level disturbance will approach the panhandle late
Saturday afternoon. This will lead to a deepening surface low
over northeastern Colorado. As the disturbance approaches the
low and an inverted trough of low pressure late Saturday
afternoon, thunderstorms will develop INVOF the surface
boundary. This activity will be isolated initially, given the
40s dew points in the western CWA. As this activity translates
east into the early evening hours, areal coverage will increase
as storms encounter better low level moisture (ie. 50 something
dew points). Shear will be favorable for some severe storms,
however, coverage of severe storms will be limited by the low
degree of dew points in the forecast area. Moisture will be more
prolific over Kansas into southeastern Nebraska and this is
where severe coverage will be more widespread. On the heels of
the Saturday system, another shortwave trough will track across
the northern Rockies on Sunday. This feature will then drop
southeast into the Black Hills Sunday night increasing the
threat for thunderstorms over northern Nebraska. Ridging aloft
will then build into the central and northern plains Monday
night into Wednesday morning, leading to dry conditions across
the area. As the ridge breaks down late Wednesday, the threat
for precipitation will increase Wednesday night into Thursday.
High temperatures toward the middle of next week will rebound
into the 80s from the 70s early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

The main impact to aircraft operations will be gusty west to
northwest winds that will be increasing through the predawn
hours and continue into the afternoon once diurnal heating mixes
the boundary layer. Will indicate gusts around 30kt at KLBF but
approaching 40kt at KVTN. Winds start to relax later in the
afternoon and will become light after sunset toward the end of
the valid period.

Radar shows some lingering showers moving through KVTN so will
include an early TEMPO but otherwise a dry TAF period for
central and western Nebraska. While conditions will generally be
VFR, there will be a couple of hour with MVFR CIGS at KVTN this
morning.

Note: Due to a communications issue observations from the ASOS at
KVTN are not being distributed. However the ASOS continues to
function and is available by dialing in directly on the voice
line.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...MBS