644
FXUS63 KLBF 270800
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
300 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry conditions for Memorial Day will continue into
  Tuesday.

- Active weather developing by midweek with increasing potential
  for thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. Some storms may
  become severe.

- Temperatures at or above normal with a slight cooldown by the
  end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Another vigorous shortwave moving through the High Plains in
northwest flow aloft is driving development of some scattered
showers and even a few rumbles of thunder early this morning
across northern and western Nebraska. Expect this activity will
continue to sink southeastward into central Nebraska but be
diminishing as it goes with few if any sprinkles lingering much
past daybreak. Thereafter, an amplifying upper ridge over the
Rockies will bring dry conditions to the region for Memorial Day
and continuing into Tuesday. By Tuesday night, high pressure
building down through the Great Lakes will set up southerly
flow and start to bring moisture back into the area along with
some isentropic lift. This may be enough to generate some widely
scattered showers/thunderstorms Tuesday night mainly along and
south of I-80.

Highs today will range form the lower 70s near the SD border to
the upper 70s heading south toward KS, and readings Tuesday
will be a couple of degrees warmer. Lows will generally be in
the middle 40s to around 50 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

There has been little change in forecast reasoning heading into
midweek as ensemble guidance remains in good agreement
advertising a progressive pattern with an upper level trof
moving in form the PacNW pushing the axis of the high amplitude
ridge over the Rockies east of the region by late Wednesday.

With surface high pressure building over the Great Lakes,
southerly flow will establish efficient moisture transport into
the Plains with a ribbon of precipitable water values into the
90th percentile running up from Texas through the Dakotas and
continuing northward into Canada by later Wednesday through
Thursday. This moisture will be very effective in giving our
instability a boost and set the stage for rounds of thunderstorms
late Wednesday/Wednesday night onward with increasing potential
for locally heavy rainfall and some strong to severe storms.
The severe threat appears confined to locations west of Hwy 83
late Wednesday into Wednesday night with a Day 3 Marginal Risk
from SPC as activity initiates and moves off the higher terrain
to the west, but the threat looks to encompass most of central
and western Nebraska heading into Thursday as a cold front
pushes in from the west. With the upper trof continuing to move
through the High Plains and moisture lingering over the region,
expect potential for diurnally biased showers and thunderstorm
will remain with us through the end of the workweek and into the
weekend. Temperatures will be above seasonal normals through
midweek but will be followed by a slight cooldown cooldown
Friday and Saturday before rebounding by the end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions prevail across western and north central Nebraska
through the period. Northwest winds strengthen around sunrise
with gusts up to 20 kts across the south (LBF) and 30 kts for
the north (VTN). These gusty winds subside around sunset,
becoming light and variable at 10 kts or less overnight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Viken