407
FXUS64 KLCH 222012
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
312 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

A warm and muggy Wednesday afternoon is ongoing across the
forecast area, with temperatures currently ranging from the mid to
upper 80s, while dewpoints are in the mid to upper 70s yielding
heat indices in the mid 90s to lower 100s in a few spots. Visible
satellite imagery shows low to mid level clouds streaming north
across the area, while radar is mostly quiet apart from a couple
of showers to the north and west of our CWA boundary.

As we move into tonight, convection to our north will continue to
blossom along a nearby cold front, and some of these showers and
storms may be able to make their way as far south as the Tyler CO
to Rapides Parish line. SPC has outlined this part of the CWA in a
Marginal Risk today, mainly for the risk for damaging winds. For
the most part, short range guidance keeps most of this convection
to our north, but a stray thunderstorm or two can`t be ruled out.
Otherwise, another warm and humid night is on tap with lows in
the mid 70s.

The remainder of the work week will consist of warm and dry
conditions, as upper level ridging anchored to our south maintains
zonal flow aloft and onshore flow continues at the surface. Little
to no day-to-day changes are expected through the next few days,
with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s on
tap. Overnight, lows will continue to fall into the mid 70s.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

As the forecast period begins, unseasonably hot conditions will
be in place with south flow off the Gulf providing high humidity
values to go along with the above normal air temperatures. These
conditions will prevail over the weekend into Monday with max
afternoon apparent temperature or heat index value between 100F
and 105F degrees.

On Monday, the upper level pattern will change some with the ridge
weakening and flattening out that will allow for a short wave to
move across the region that will bring a surface boundary into the
forecast area late Monday into Monday night. Still some differences
on the exact timing and how far south the boundary will get before
stalling and washing out.

At this point, it looks like some showers or storms will be in store
during the Monday evening hours. High PWAT values are noted before
the boundary arrives, along with adequate CAPE, mid level shear, and
mid level lapse rates, that some strong storms may occur, however
still plenty of time to watch this and fine tune everything.

The boundary may wash out some on Tuesday, however, just enough of
it around to keep some pops in the forecast before a brief period of
drier air moves in.

07/Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

BR/MVFR CIGs with VCSH will improve this afternoon a bit with
VFR/MVFR CIGs this afternoon. Winds will be from the S/SE 10-13kts
with gusts to around 20 kts.

There could be VCTS/TSRA generally north of I-10 this evening,
but confidence is low with only a PROB30 for KAEX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Moderate onshore flow is expected to prevail into the weekend
amid a tightened pressure gradient between surface high pressure
to the east and a series of low pressure systems developing across
the Plains. Rain chances should remain low although an isolated
light shower or two cannot be ruled out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  90  73  93 /  20  10   0   0
LCH  75  89  76  89 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  76  90  76  90 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  76  89  76  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30