956
FXUS64 KLCH 232002
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
302 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Another warm and humid afternoon is ongoing across the region
today, as we slowly become further entrenched in a typical
summertime pattern. Temperatures currently range from the mid 80s
to near 90 at a few spots, while dewpoints are in the mid 70s.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are noted on satellite imagery,
while area radar is quiet.

A similar repetitive forecast will continue as we head into the
holiday weekend, as ridging aloft remains anchored from northern
Mexico across the Gulf keeping shower activity, and any upper
level features that could induce shower activity, at bay. At the
surface, weak high pressure extends across the SErn US, resulting
in a light to moderate onshore flow across the CWA. As Gulf
moisture continues to pool overhead and keep dewpoints elevated, a
lack of rain will at the same time keep temps in the upper 80s to
low 90s through the next few days while overnight lows will
struggle to fall out of the mid to upper 70s.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

As the forecast period begins, unseasonably hot conditions continue
on Sunday with south flow off the Gulf providing high humidity
values to go along with the above normal air temperatures from some
upper level ridging, with these conditions prevailing into Monday.
Max afternoon apparent temperature or heat index value is expected
to be between 100F and 105F degrees on Sunday and 102F and 107F on
Monday.

By late Monday, the upper level pattern will change slightly with
some flattening of the upper level ridge that will allow for a short
wave to move across the region. This system is not showing up quite
as strong on guidance today as yesterday so the strength of a
surface boundary and how far the boundary will move through the
forecast area is still a question. At this point will just have a
slight chance pop for Monday evening/Monday night to account for
this. Although the upper level dynamics are not as impressive, still
could be some favorable CAPE, shear, and lapse rates, that if
activity can get going, it will be on the strong side.

The boundary hangs out through Wednesday, although some slightly
drier air may push in enough to bring afternoon heat index values
below 100F.

07/Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

MVFR to VFR ceilings, breezy southerly winds, and occasional hazy
conditions can be expected through the afternoon. Tonight, winds
will relax a bit while ceilings will continue to waffle between
VFR and MVFR. Hazy and/or foggy conditions will be possible again
through the morning hours. Winds will again become breezy with
more frequent gusts by the late morning hours tomorrow, while
ceilings should become VFR area-wide.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Moderate onshore flow is expected to prevail into the weekend as a
tightened pressure gradient between surface high pressure to the
east and a series of low pressure systems across the Plains
continues. Rain chances should remain low, although an isolated
light shower or two cannot be ruled out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  92  74  93 /  10   0   0   0
LCH  76  89  76  89 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  76  91  77  93 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  76  90  77  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...17