Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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593 FXUS64 KLCH 312102 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 402 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The latest MCS to traverse the region is presently pushing into southeast Louisiana with cloud cover becoming scattered in it`s wake. While this will allow for some late afternoon heating, the atmosphere has been pretty well worked over and it`s unlikely there will be enough time for sufficient recovery to support any significant convective redevelopment this evening. Winds should become light overnight and with soils again saturated, patchy light fog will be possible overnight especially where clearing skies allow for temps to drop a bit more. Any development should be short lived as another, albeit weaker, shortwave is progged to swing across the region Saturday. Latest CAMS guidance, which has admittedly been poor as of late, has been indicating convective initialization by mid morning and continuing through late Saturday afternoon. Plenty of tropical moisture in place across the region will continue to support high rainfall rates in thunderstorms and the general instability will support a marginal risk of damaging winds. For Sunday, the region will be on the southern periphery of another shortwave, but afternoon convection looks to be more diurnally driven and should be more scattered in nature compared to recent events and should dissipate fairly quickly through the early evening. High rainfall rates will again be possible with any convection. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The long term begins Monday with the area under a nearly zonal flow aloft while at the sfc, high pressure over the Atlantic maintains a moist srly low-level flow. Forecast soundings indicate less capping and better moisture over the nern zones...and with daytime heating being the primary driver, we could see a few showers/storms during the afternoon across mainly cntl LA. For Tuesday, we begin to see ridging developing aloft in response to a mid/upper-level low digging swd through the Desert SW into nwrn Mexico...the resulting capping should keep convection at bay across our region despite the continued good low-level moisture. Wednesday currently looks like a repeat performance, although the passage of a decent shortwave rounding the ridge could lead to an isolated shower/storm again over our nern zones...for now, POPs have been capped at just under the slight chance threshold. Rain chances, albeit small, return to the forecast for Thursday as the ridge begins breaking down in response to a digging trof over the ern CONUS...the resultant weak capping allowing for widely scattered convection to develop. Temperatures are progged to start rather seasonal with daytime highs around 90F, although warmer than normal mins are forecast with readings all through the 70s. A slight warming trend is in the works with highs in the lower/mid 90s by period`s end...overnight lows remain rather static. 25 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A broken MCS continues to progress across the region this afternoon. Precipitation has already come to an end at BPT and will do so at LCH shortly. AEX, LFT and ARA will continue to see visibility reducing heavy rainfall, and gusty winds through 21Z. Guidance has backed off additional development this evening. Areas of fog will be possible overnight where heavy rainfall was observed but confidence in this is too low to explicitly mention at this time. Another round of scattered to widespread showers and storms will develop Saturday morning and continue through the afternoon. Confidence on the timing of the initialization of Saturday`s storms is very low and could occur prior to sunrise. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Onshore flow around 15 knots and seas of 3-4 feet will prevail this afternoon into Saturday. Another round of thunderstorms will develop from mid Saturday morning through late afternoon. Onshore winds will become lighter Saturday evening through the upcoming week. Just an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible offshore Sunday with drier conditions expected through the remainder of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 69 86 69 88 / 40 70 20 50 LCH 73 88 74 87 / 30 70 20 40 LFT 75 89 75 89 / 30 80 20 50 BPT 74 88 75 89 / 40 60 10 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...66