472
FXUS64 KLCH 301751
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1251 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

The forecast remains mostly unchanged, with the biggest concern
being Friday, as the Storm Prediction Center has placed us under a
Slight Risk (2/5) on the severe storm scale. Today we do have
another severe weather risk with our area under a Marginal Risk
(1/5) with the main threat being damaging winds and large hail.
Looking at the threat today, CAMs show afternoon showers and
thunderstorms forming at peak daytime heating, most likely along
any boundaries that set up during the day. The environment looks
favorable for isolated severe weather with high PWATS (+1.7 in),
large lapse rates (above 7 C/km), and CAPE values above 2000 J/kg.
All this with somewhat favorable bulk wind shear of 15 to 30
knots. Storms that do form today, if they can tap into the
environment, could become multicellular or supercells.

Friday looks to have a similar setup but with slightly better
dynamics in play, with bulk shear closer to 20 to 40 knots and
CAPE around 2500 J/kg. The past several CAM runs have all shown a
QCLS/MCS forming in central Texas that will then track across the
region in the first half of Friday, followed by a second round
that afternoon.

Unfortunately, the pattern doesn`t give us a break on Saturday as
we are in another Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather. This
springtime/early summer pattern will continue into the long-term
forecast as well.

Temperatures will be average for this time of year, with highs
reaching into the upper 80s and lows in the 70s.&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A series of disturbances will keep afternoon showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for Sunday and the rest of the
forecast period. At the surface, high pressure will remain planted
to the east, allowing for the consistent onshore flow of warm and
humid air into the CWA. Aloft, zonal flow, at 500 mb, several
short wave troughs at trek over the region. None of these
disturbances stand out as much as the others, so the no-period
through Wednesday stands out as a major weather day. Models are
not in great agreement for the mid- to long-term forecast, as the
GFS shows the 500 mb flow becoming northwest on Wednesday while
the ECMWF shows this change taking shape around Friday.
Temperatures will be on the rise this week, creeping back into the
low 90s. While we won`t have as much heat as last week, with the
high humidity, expect heat index values to reach 100 most
afternoons.

Overall, we are in for an early summer-like pattern with sea
breezes, afternoon showers, and humid conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A series of disturbances will keep afternoon showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for Sunday and the rest of the
forecast period. At the surface, high pressure will remain planted
to the east, allowing for the consistent onshore flow of warm and
humid air into the CWA. Aloft, zonal flow, at 500 mb, several
short wave troughs at trek over the region. None of these
disturbances stand out as much as the others, so the no-period
through Wednesday stands out as a major weather day. Models are
not in great agreement for the mid- to long-term forecast, as the
GFS shows the 500 mb flow becoming northwest on Wednesday while
the ECMWF shows this change taking shape around Friday.
Temperatures will be on the rise this week, creeping back into the
low 90s. While we won`t have as much heat as last week, with the
high humidity, expect heat index values to reach 100 most
afternoons.

Overall, we are in for an early summer-like pattern with sea
breezes, afternoon showers, and humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Very widely isolated showers and storms in the vicinity of SETX
and CenLA at the moment with a bit more activity expected to
build in this afternoon. There is a fair amount of uncertainty in
the forecast however models are hinting at a lull in activity
this evening before a round of widespread activity moves in over
the early morning to afternoon hours.
Stigger/87

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Light to moderate onshore flow will continue for the remainder of
the period with wave heights in the 2 to 4 foot range. There will
be an isolated to scattered chance of daily showers and storms
over the coastal waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  84  69  85 /  10  60  40  70
LCH  75  86  74  86 /  10  50  30  70
LFT  74  88  74  88 /  20  60  30  60
BPT  76  87  75  87 /  20  50  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...87