610
FXUS64 KLCH 291020
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
520 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A stationary boundary stretches across the coast, while high
pressure is situated to the east. Upstream convection located in
Texas will be the main weather feature for Wednesday. There is a
Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather in central Louisiana, but
conditions do not look particularly favorable, especially with a
cooler and drier airmass in place. On Thursday and Friday, we will
have a moderately unstable environment with favorable conditions
that will support afternoon showers and thunderstorms. We could
also see the sea breeze boundaries form during the afternoon,
which can provide areas of local convergence.

Temperatures during this time will be fairly typical for this
time of year, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will start to build on
the east coast, and we will see onshore flow return, along with
more humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Over the weekend, with surface high centered off to the east just
off the southeast US coast, southerly flow will bring in plenty of
Gulf moisture allowing muggy and humid conditions to continue.

Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will be centered over western old
Mexico and this will allow west-northwest flow aloft with a general
weakness over the forecast area. Therefore, disturbances aloft will
be able to interact with the moist air mass to produce a decent
chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially during the
afternoon hours for Saturday and Sunday.

Into early next week, some differences in the global models make for
a lower confidence forecast. What does seem certain is that
southerly low level flow will persist and bring in Gulf moisture
with humid conditions. What is uncertain is how much the upper level
ridge over Mexico will strengthen and build into the forecast area.
At this time will have a general lowering of pops as the expectation
is the upper level ridge will build over the forecast area for
Monday and Tuesday.

07/Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A second round of showers will be possible between 12Z to 16Z as a
disturbance moves through the region. I removed thunderstorms from
the TAFs as the atmosphere is worked over from yesterday and the
line seems to be mostly stratiform rain. Still we could see MVFR
CIGS/VIS during the early morning. After the passage of the
disturbance we will have VFR conditons with a high overcast cloud
deck. Winds will be light and variable this forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Current observations show light and variable winds offshore. Winds
will shift to become offshore around 10 to 15 knots later in the
week as high pressure builds to the east. Looking at buoys and
altimeter data waves, they are at or below 4 feet in the Gulf.
This aligns well with current model guidance, and waves are
expected to stay below 5 feet through the weekend. A few showers
and thunderstorms may form in the coastal waters, but strong to
severe storms are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  68  86  68 /  40  30  70  30
LCH  89  74  87  74 /  40  30  70  20
LFT  91  74  88  74 /  20  20  60  20
BPT  88  75  88  75 /  50  30  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14