768
FXUS64 KLCH 292115
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
415 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Showers and storms are on radar currently in response to a storm
system and a boundary that is bisecting the area. Storms this
afternoon will begin to taper out near sunset with a quiet evening
and overnight period.

Little to no change in the overall pattern. The upper ridge is still
centered over MX / the Pacific where it will remain over the course
of the period. We will see impulses quickly slide across the region,
leading to the possibility of seeing daily showers and storms.

MaxTs will be in the upper 80s to right at 90 and MinTs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Dewpoints will be stuck in the 70s, yielding
MaxApts around the 90s range.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

An upper trof extending from the central plains into the northern
Gulf of Mexico will continue to slowly work across the region
keeping PoPs elevated Saturday into Sunday. The persistent low level
tropical airmass, normal for this time of year, will support a low
end risk of flash flooding due to high rainfall rates and diurnal
heating could allow for a few stronger storms both Saturday and
Sunday afternoons.

While there continues to be a fairly wide variation in model
solutions, the general trend is for persistent ridging over northern
Mexico to build up the Texas gulf coast and the western Gulf of
Mexico Sunday night into Monday which will suppress all, but the
most tenacious diurnally driven afternoon convection. NBM is
resolving isolated afternoon PoPs Monday through Wednesday and see
no justification to oppose this solution. The decreasing precip and
cloud cover will allow afternoon highs to creep back into the upper
80s to lower 90s through the first half of the week and heat indices
pushing 100.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Showers and storms are starting to move through the central
louisiana with more activity expected to ramp up over the
afternoon hours. There will be a lull period late this evening
through tomorrow morning, with only sparse activity expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Light to moderate onshore flow will continue for the remainder of
the period with wave heights in the 2 to 4 foot range. There will
be an isolated to scattered chance of daily showers and storms
over the coastal waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  86  69  85 /  20  50  30  60
LCH  72  86  73  86 /  20  60  20  50
LFT  72  89  74  89 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  74  87  75  88 /  20  60  10  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...87