103
FXUS64 KLIX 241133
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
633 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Upper level ridging near the Bay of Campeche continues to nose up
into the western Gulf of Mexico and Louisiana. Shortwave energy
continues to pass just to the north of the ridge, with one
passing to the east of the CWA early this morning, and another
moving into southwest Arkansas. A few showers passed through
southwest Mississippi during the past evening, and can`t rule out
a similar occurrence later today. Southerly flow continues to pump
moist air into the area, with early morning temperatures and dew
points mainly in the 70s. Precipitable water values were in the
1.5-1.6 inch range on the 00z soundings around the region, with a
bit more of a cap noted on the LIX sounding as compared to the LCH
and JAN soundings.

The southwest Arkansas shortwave will move eastward today, with a
non-zero threat of a shower or storm on the Mississippi coast if
the cap weakens enough. At this time, it appears that any
shortwave energy moving over the ridge position on Saturday should
be too far north to produce any precipitation across the local
area.

Forecast soundings do show low level temperatures, particularly at
925 mb, warming up a degree or two C today, and perhaps another
degree or so on Saturday. Considering most of the area remained in
the upper 80s Thursday afternoon, that would put high temperatures
generally in the lower 90s in most locations, with one or two,
like Baton Rouge, nudging into the middle 90s. Heat index values
look like they should top out in the 100-105F range both days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Sunday doesn`t look much different than tomorrow, with highs in
the lower and middle 90s. Beyond Sunday, global models not in
particularly good agreement on timing of individual shortwaves
passing mainly to the north of the area. Will hold onto the low
end PoPs for Monday/Tuesday north of Interstate 10, as there is at
least some support for convection both days. What the global
models do agree on is that shortwave energy should beat down the
ridging enough to turn the mid level flow across the area
northwesterly by mid week. This should introduce a bit drier
(comparatively) air to the area, and take the edge off the heat a
bit by Tuesday into Wednesday. Daytime dew points should drop
into the 60s to the north of Interstate 10 on Tuesday, and even
south of Interstate 10 by Wednesday/Thursday. That will help bring
temperatures down 3-5F by midweek, which will only knock them
down to around normal for late May. Before we get to that point,
humidity values may be a bit on the uncomfortable side, with heat
index values near 105F Sunday and Monday, with a bit more emphasis
on the areal coverage of heat index values on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Upper trough moving across western Arkansas and Louisiana
contributing to radar returns that don`t seem to be getting much
lower than FL060-FL080 this morning. We are seeing occasional
SCT-BKN clouds around FL015 that may cause brief MVFR restrictions
through late morning before cloud bases lift above FL030.
Afternoon and evening should see primarily VFR conditions before
MVFR ceilings return beyond 06z Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Onshore flow is expected to continue through the holiday weekend,
although wind direction may become a little more southerly with
time. Pressure gradient remains rather weak, so that should
generally keep winds near or below 15 knots. Even behind the front
at midweek next week, winds should generally remain below 15
knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  94  76  95  76 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  92  74  93  74 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  91  77  92  77 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  89  75  90  75 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  90  73  91  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW