273
FXUS64 KLIX 181136 AAA
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
636 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...NEW AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Frontal boundary, such as it is, is likely somewhere near or south
of a Hattiesburg to Baton Rouge to Lake Charles line. Dew points
south of that line are well into the 70s, while in the 60s to the
north. Most of the strong thunderstorms remain over the Gulf of
Mexico this morning, but there is a band of storms over the Gulf
to the south of Lake Charles, that if they continue their current
northeastward movement, could produce a training scenario
producing heavy rainfall over portions of the Flood Watch area
over the next 6 hours. Precipitable water value on the special 03Z
LIX sounding was still 1.87 inches, so heavy rainfall still a
concern. For this reason, plan to hold onto the watch until
expiration, unless rain moves out of the area sooner. Pretty much
all guidance has rain moving offshore in the 15z-18z window or
sooner with the trough axis shifting to the east of the area. May
take until late afternoon or early evening to completely clear,
however. Beyond sunset this evening, the only real concern for the
remainder of the short term forecast period will be the potential
for some patchy radiation type fog around sunrise Sunday.

The rather wet ground may aid in the development of a cumulus
field across the area on Sunday, but shouldn`t have a major impact
on temperatures. As temperature guidance is fairly well clustered,
won`t depart from the NBM numbers.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Upper ridging that will move from northern Mexico into Texas on
Sunday will continue to work eastward into the Lower Mississippi
River Valley at midweek, and remain over the northern Gulf through
the end of the week. A shortwave may suppress it somewhat
southward by Thursday or Friday, but it still appears that
significant precipitation will be hard to come by through the end
of the work week next week after this morning`s rain. Unlikely to
be much in the way of change in temperatures from day to day
during the workweek, with readings generally 3 to 5 degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Convection this morning will lead to brief reductions in VIS/CIG.
MVFR conditions will be possible during this time. This activity
will move out from west to east with convection moving out of the
GPT area by mid morning or so. Beyond this VFR conditions are
anticipated through the rest of today and into tonight. Will need
to watch for low stratus/fog developing overnight tonight,
especially over the fog favored terminals such as MCB and HUM.
(Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Will cancel the Small Craft Advisory with forecast issuance, as
any winds greater than 15 knots or so will be convectively related
this morning. Thunderstorms should even move out of the coastal
waters later today or this evening.

Beyond today, winds are likely to remain below 15 knots through
much or all of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  84  65  89  66 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  89  70  93  72 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  86  69  92  69 /  60   0   0   0
MSY  85  73  90  74 /  60   0   0   0
GPT  82  69  90  70 /  80  10   0   0
PQL  84  68  92  67 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for LAZ036-037-039-046>048-
     056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for MSZ077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RW