530
FXUS64 KLIX 160851
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
351 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The sfc part of the old frontal boundary is stalled near the coast
this morning and drapes inland near Terrebonne Parish westward to
Beuregard Parish. This can be seen with showers developing along
this boundary while the 850mb part of this is stalled over the
central gulf and this part of the front can be easily seen over
the eastern portion of the gulf as storms fire along its boundary.
The 850mb part of this continues through the gulf and comes
ashore near Corpus Christi TX. This will be the main line to watch
later today as it gets brought back to the north and storms start
to fire along it. Rainfall rates will intesify through the day
along this boundary and should be most intense with a corridor of
heaviest rainfall from near a line from Austin to DeRidder then up
to McComb to near Hattiesburg over the next few days. Obviously,
the heavy rain will not just lie along this line but either side
of it as well. WPC has kept a portion of the area near BTR in a
moderate risk which looks warranted. This is also where the
current flood watch has been posted and this will remain for now
but may be changed a bit for Fri depending on how things unfold.
This boundary will also compartmentalize where severe storms will
form. North of this boundary should be all heavy rain but there is
the potential for large hail to the north of this boundary. The
sfc instability will be through the area this morning and sh/ts
are already forming along this sfc instability line, while the
elevated instability will start to move through by 3pm. The entire
area should be unstable throughout the column before midnight
tonight. This deep vertical instability should be evident by where
the rain and storms begin to fire later today. Eventhough SPC has
a marginal risk level for the area, it still warrants attention
as conditions will be conducive for severe storms, just not to the
degree that Fri is looking. The first wave moves out Fri morning
and fast on its heals will be the next disturbance that should
start developing near the Houston area Fri morning and quickly
move ENE along this same boundary entering our area around 3pm
Fri. The next system will be right behind this one. This third one
should develop somewhere between Houston and Corpus late Fri and
move ENE at a very rapid pace entering the area around or just
after midnight Fri night into Sat morning. This one looks like the
same style of systems we have been having for the last several
weeks, the wake low type scenario with a very fast moving squall
line producing severe wind speeds. We will need to see exactly
where and the time this complex forms to pin down any discrete
placement and timing lcoally. These Fri systems look quite
volatile and will have a lot of energy to use in the form of
almost every severe wx variable with all modes of severe possible.
Models have been everso slightly nudging this whole mess
northward, but we are still quite confident that most of the area
will see strong chances of heavy rainfall and severe storms at
some point between today and early Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Even though the boundary gets left in place across the area
Saturday, the sfc low and upper troughing move east bringing the mid
and upper support with it after the third disturbance exits the
area. This will help alleviate the heavy rain and severe storm
threat for most of the weekend. High pressure builds and moves east
by the new week but ridges over the gulf coast through about mid
week. A new cold front will move to around the Ark/La line before
stalling with our area possibly staying rain free for the most of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

All terminals will start out VFR and should remain that way through
the daylight hours. MVFR cigs will begin to move in before midnight
and should be over the entire area by the early morning hours Fri.
There are some IFR cigs that begin to move into the western portion
of the area around sunrise Fri. HUM could see some -TSRA before dark
today but most terminals will see this through the night hours
tonight bringing IFR conditions at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A weak stalled boundary will begin moving back to the north today
which will cause return flow once again and a rise in wind speed
through the end of the week. Another few strong disturbances could
impact the coastal waters mainly the nearshore and inland waters Thu
but the systems moving through on Fri could have some very strong
severe storms again moving through at a very fast pace with stong
winds over the waters once again. Storms associated with Friday`s
squall line could produce winds of 50-60kt while the winds behind
this squall line could remain in gales again Fri night. High
pressure will building back over the area over the weekend into the
new week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  65  83  68 /  10  80  80  60
BTR  90  71  89  72 /  30  70  60  50
ASD  89  72  89  71 /  10  50  60  50
MSY  87  75  89  75 /  20  40  40  50
GPT  87  72  85  70 /  10  40  50  50
PQL  89  70  87  70 /   0  40  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-071-081-083.

GM...None.
MS...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for
     MSZ068>071.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE