213
FXUS64 KLIX 222020
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
320 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Ridging continues to dominate the area for the most part with dry
conditions expect. The only exception to this will be tonight in
the northwestern part of the forecast area due some weakening of
the ridge possible because of a weak developing shortwave pushing
through OK into AR then west MS/north LA bringing a potential
threat of showers/storms. There is already convection ongoing in
southeast OK so expect it to move east/southeast later tonight but
confidence of it actually reaching our area isn`t as high in
terms of it reaching the SW MS counties of the CWA since the
environmental support is not great over our area with plenty of
capping. Any chances of showers/storms should be over by the time
we get into late hours tonight. Other than this, dry and quiet
conditions are expected.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024
The area will still under the influence of a slow building ridge
through the weekend and Memorial Day, with high temperatures
reaching into the low to mid 90s through Monday. When including
the humidity, we could see heat index values at the peak of the
day on the long weekend in the upper 90s/low 100s.
Most areas will be anomalous warm with a few spots threatening
the records, particularly New Orleans.

Here are a few reminders for heat safety this weekend:
-Take frequent breaks inside with A/C or in shade if the former is
 not available
-stay hydrated, drink plenty of fluids
-dress with light colored and loose clothing
-don`t leave children or pets in the car
-avoid activities especially in the heat of mid day
-know the signs of heat illness

Starting Tuesday, we have a nearby front that will approach from
the north, so building clouds off of that on top of some low rain
chances (20-30%ish) that will help dampen the heat slightly and
bring our next chances of rain. We`ll be in a more zonal flow
pattern for the first part of the week. -BL

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Most of the terminals are VFR with a few at just barely MVFR due
to some lower a scattered cloud deck. MCB may briefly experience
some lower vis due to light patchy fog, but other than that, the
forecast is benign with light southerly/southeasterly winds. -BL

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024
Fairly benign weather continues for the coastal waters. Winds and
waves will remain fairly light onshore flow with the exception of
parts of Sunday and Monday may see some winds at around 15 to 20
knots so small craft exercise caution headline may be needed then.
After this, the winds will become light again for the rest of
next week. -BL



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  88  70  91 /  10  10   0   0
BTR  74  92  75  94 /  10  10   0   0
ASD  71  90  73  93 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  74  90  76  92 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  71  87  74  88 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  69  88  72  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...BL