797
FXUS64 KLIX 170814
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
314 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Although there are a few storms remaining early this morning, any
severe threat likely limited to borderline hail as main portion of
shortwave is east of the area. Quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding severe threat and heavy rain threat over the next 24
hours. Deepest moisture remains just offshore where dew points are
in the mid and upper 70s, but drier air is over the northern
portion of the area, where dew points are in the lower 60s. Next
shortwave actually won`t approach the area until the overnight
period tonight into Saturday morning when precipitable water
values will again approach 2 inches, as southerly surface winds
pull moisture back into the area. Quite a bit of mid level dry air
for much of the area until perhaps 06z Saturday, and would
anticipate that instantaneous areal coverage during the day today
should remain on the scattered side, with a significant increase
in areal coverage during the mid to late evening hours. Drier air
returns during the day Saturday.

Will keep the Flood Watch in place, as there was a fairly sizeable
area of 1.5 to 3 inch rainfalls, and another inch or two on top of
that overnight tonight could cause runoff issues.

Will not move off the NBM temperature forecast at this time, but
the main question for high temperatures today will be cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Upper ridging builds from Mexico into the Lower Mississippi River
Valley beginning Saturday evening through much or all of the
workweek. At present, it appears that any significant chance of
precipitation beyond tomorrow morning is likely to wait until
beyond the end of the forecast package, with at least some
potential to remain dry through next weekend. Temperatures are
expected to remain above normal through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Most forecast terminals VFR at issuance time, although thunder
still being reported in the vicinity of most. Should see TSRA end
at most terminals in the next hour or two, but expect ceilings to
deteriorate to MVFR or IFR prior to sunrise. MVFR ceilings may
remain at most terminals for much of the daytime hours. Main
question during the day will be how much, if any, convective
activity occurs. Most of the model guidance indicates convective
development primarily beyond 00z Saturday, with some holding it
off beyond 06z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Small Craft Advisory is already in place through tonight, which
may be a bit overdone during the overnight period, but would
prefer not to get into a situation of lowering it to Small Craft
Exercise Caution and having to re-invoke an Advisory. Day shift
can lower it this afternoon if it still appears that overnight
winds will remain below advisory criteria. Beyond the first 24-30
hours of the forecast, a quieter wind and sea state appears to be
in the cards.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  66  84  65 /  70  60  50  10
BTR  87  71  89  70 /  60  60  40   0
ASD  88  71  86  69 /  60  70  60  10
MSY  88  73  86  73 /  50  80  60  10
GPT  85  70  83  69 /  60  70  70  10
PQL  87  70  84  67 /  50  70  80  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ068.

     Flood Watch through Saturday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
     057-058-060-064-071-076>087-089.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW