441
FXUS64 KLIX 251857
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
157 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

An upper level ridge centered over Mexico just west of the Bay of
Campeche will continue to be expanded northeast across the Gulf
States through Sunday. This will maintain hot temps and little to no
rainfall for now. Last night lows were near records, not even
below 80 degrees in some locations. For highs, today and Memorial
Day will be HOT with temperatures reaching well into the mid 90s.
That`ll be right at records for some areas. Although heat indices
will be several degrees below heat advisory criteria Sunday,
Monday may not be quite that lucky. Increasing southerly flow
ahead of a front slowly approaching from the north. That`ll help
to bring dewpoints up in the mid 70s. With highs still in the mid
90s, latest forecast peak heat index values are 105-107. So, may
be issuing our first heat advisory of the year on Memorial Day.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

After a hot and generally dry Memorial Day weekend, temperatures
will be trending back down some next week. Although we likely
won`t get down to normal temps, at least shouldn`t be flirting
with record highs. These cooler temps come thanks to an upper
level trough early next week. Models show a cutoff low dropping
south out of Canada as a shortwave trough passes across the upper
MS Valley on Monday. The merging of these 2 features will aide in
the southward progression of the associated cooler airmass.
Although its still uncertain how far south the cold front will
reach, the trough will suppress ridging aloft which will do 2
things midweek onward:
bring down temps by a few to maybe several degrees and allow for
scattered convection to develop.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Low/mid level CU field will continue through the rest of today with
MVFR becoming VFR as decks lift this afternoon. MVFR conditions will
return for most terminals as lower level clouds redevelop overnight.
The potential for fog isn`t particularly high, but KMCB could see
LIFR visibilities around sunrise Sunday.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Surface high pressure is currently centered just north of the
Bahamas and extends westward across the entire Gulf of Mexico.
Through this weekend, gradient flow around that ridge will keep
local winds blowing south to southwestward. As a surface low tracks
east across the Central Plains tonight into Sunday with cause the
local pressure gradient to tighten. Winds will respond by increasing
from closer to 10 knots to more in Exercise Caution speeds of 15 to
20 knots for 12 hours or so. A cold front associated with that
surface low will attempt to push into the Gulf but will likely stall
before doing so. That`ll break down the wind field by quite a bit
mid week.

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  91  73  92 /   0   0  10  20
BTR  79  94  79  96 /   0   0   0  20
ASD  78  92  78  94 /   0   0   0  20
MSY  81  91  81  94 /   0   0   0  20
GPT  79  89  79  91 /   0   0   0  30
PQL  74  90  74  92 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME