786
FXUS64 KLIX 262041
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
341 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through 12Z Wednesday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun May
26 2024

Upper level weak ridging is currently over us with a surface high
over the Bahamas and extending into the eastern GOM. Into Monday,
a weak upper trough passes to our north providing a focus for
potential rain and a bit of a possibility for severe weather,
which will be high winds if it does happen. Beyond that, we can
expect to see the summertime pattern of spotty afternoon
convection.

The real point of interest for the short term is going to be the
heat. With the Memorial Day observance likely bringing outdoor
activities, we are highlighting the high temperatures and
humidities driving Apparent Temperatures into the 105+ range.
While this is below our Heat Advisory criteria, the combination of
first occurrence and high outdoor activities has led to issuance
of a Heat Advisory from late morning to early evening tomorrow.
/Schlotz/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(12Z Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.LONG TERM...Medium range models in fairly good agreement with the
pattern just some differences in the sensible weather and details
which at this time would be rather difficult to nail down. The main
culprit is the handling of the massive ridge that will move across
the central CONUS and build east through the second half of the work
week. How strong the ridge is and how fast moves east and far north
it is based at could make the difference between sct convection 1 or
2 days with an increase in cloud cover leading to warm and humid
days or no rain and rather hot days. With so much uncertainty don`t
feel comfortable at this time straying away from the NBM as it is a
good middle of the ground approach.

As we head into Wednesday the Great Lakes trough will be pushing off
to the east and by the end of the day should be nudging into the
Atlantic. This will try to place the area under northwest flow aloft
and as we move deeper and deeper into the Summer northwest flow can
be tricky. We could remain dry or we could see strong to severe
storms. The northwest flow would lead to much later initiation so
Wednesday could be a rather warm day but a lot depends on how much
mid and high clouds are moving over the area because there should be
a decent s/w off to our northwest Tuesday night and early Wednesday
leading to mid and upper lvl cloud blowoff from dying convection to
our west Wednesday morning. If there is no cloud cover we will get
hot and likely see convection initiate late afternoon/early evening
but if there is a lot of cloud debris we won`t get as hot (but make
no mistake it will still be pretty miserable) and there is a good
chance we will remain mostly rain free.

We could be in a similar predicament Thursday and into Friday but
that will be determined by how strong the ridge is and whether any
impulse off to our northwest can undercut it bringing additional
isltd to sct convection late in the day. Some solutions have the
ridge axis building from the northern Gulf through the western Great
Lakes while a few other solutions have the base of the ridge moving
across the northern Lower MS Valley and then off to our east. The
flow is more zonal then over us and could allow any impulses that
move through the southern Plains to try and dive east southeast to
undercut the ridge and that would have the potential to bring
additional storms.

Main take away though is the 2nd half of the work week looks to be
warm and humid with a chance of late afternoon storms with Wednesday
having the greatest chance at this time. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Most terminals currently in VFR condtions. Cumulus growth across
the area may drop any given location to MVFR and at time of
developing this discussion this is the case at KGPT. MVFR
conditions will predominate overnight as ceilings lower, but
return to VFR as tomorrow morning progresses. KMCB shows IFR with
low ceiling and reduced visibility for several hours before
sunrise. Slight chance for TSRA at KMCB around sunrise and KGPT
just after sunrise worth mentioning here in discussion, but will
wait for subsequent package issuance to see if inclusion in TAFs
are needed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Surface high pressure centered near the Bahamas and extending into
the eastern GOM has winds out of the south to southwest. Tonight
expect winds to increase to just over 15 kt which resulted in
issuance of a Small Craft Exercise Caution headline. Beyond
tonight, winds over the waters are likely to remain near to below
15 kt through the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  73  93  68 /   0  30  20  10
BTR  94  78  96  74 /   0  20  30   0
ASD  92  76  94  72 /   0  10  30   0
MSY  92  79  93  77 /   0  10  40   0
GPT  88  77  90  73 /   0  10  40  10
PQL  90  76  91  71 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ068-077-083-
     084-086-087.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS