Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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150 FXUS64 KLIX 020448 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1148 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Tonight through Monday morning... Generally, a couple more upper level impulses will move through for the short term forecast this weekend. There is still a ton of model uncertainty in the timing of these storms, like the previous days. And in general, the models, especially the CAMs, are going to continue to struggle to pinpoint timing until storms are ongoing and start firing up. So, the timing will be the area where we have the least amount of certainty tonight through Monday morning. But generally, scattered to numerous showers and storms will be expected, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours with peak daytime heating. Due to the higher lapse rates and instability, these storms will have the risk of hail and damaging winds (30-60mph). PWs are quite high, looking at the SPC sounding climatology. Therefore, locally heavy rainfall will be a concern and could cause minor flooding or ponding on local roads and make visibility while driving difficult. The localized flooding risk will be higher for urban or vulnerable locations, as well. Overall, stay weather aware this weekend as we continue in this unsettled pattern for the atmosphere. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday night) Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Monday through mid-week, conditions should be a bit drier as a weak ridge starts to build in over the area. Generally, rain chances will be lower with an isolated shower or two possible daily during the afternoon. Looking at the models, these isolated storms would likely not be severe, but could have some locally gusty winds. Temperatures will be a little warmer though, as a result. Highs are forecast to be in the low 90s with lows in the mid 70s. Heat index values will be approaching 100 degrees for most locations, especially Tuesday through mid-week. MSW && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 All terminals currently VFR and expected to hold through early morning hours. Low ceilings and visibilty can be expected to bring KMCB to IFR just before sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms are likely at times at all terminals from midmorning through the end of the period. /Schlotz/ && .MARINE... Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Benign marine conditions will persist through the forecast period with southerly and calm winds (10-15kts) prevailing. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible daily, especially during the afternoon and evening hours through Monday. Then isolated chances of storms will remain for next week. These storms will cause local increases in waves and seas. MSW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 83 67 86 69 / 60 40 50 0 BTR 88 72 90 74 / 70 40 60 0 ASD 88 71 88 73 / 80 50 50 0 MSY 87 75 87 76 / 80 50 60 0 GPT 87 72 86 74 / 80 40 50 10 PQL 86 70 88 72 / 90 40 50 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...DS MARINE...MSW