750
FXUS64 KLIX 310833
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
333 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The same scenario will basically play out today as it did yesterday.
The reason for this is not much has changed and the next MCS has
already developed over TX this morning. The current line of storms
over our area will continue to decay this morning as it moves east
and may actually slow its travel with time. Some lingering showers
toward daylight may remain but most of this should be dying. The
next round will start to develop before noon. Then the line of
storms over TX will begin to move into the area after during the
afternoon around or after 2pm. This is the best timing at the moment
since the travel time is questionable with strength of surging and
development. NBM wants to litteraly end any storms that move east of
this ThetaE line which will be set up basically along the Pearl
River area. There is no doubt that as storms move east of this area
that they will begin to weaken but to say there will be no rain in
those areas would not be a good idea. We have pushed higher precip
numbers farther east for now into coastal Miss. The unusual occurred
ofcourse and this thing stayed together as it moved east but did get
stretched and dampened with two distinct meso vorts located over
northern LA and another over southern LA. The one to the south is
following the ThetaE gradient while the one the north is following
the old stalled frontal boundary. Since they are moving SE and E
respectively, it would make more sense that this line split in two,
especially with two meso vorts, but modeled nature and real nature
are two different things. Any which route the forecast was going to
be the same with rain and storms for most locations.

Severe storm numbers were low for yesterday but not today. They are
actually pretty high for several locations with BTR being the
highest. The cutoff or lower numbers are along and east of the Pearl
River which makes sense as stability quickly rises east of this
line. Downburst numbers are nonexistant again for today and
tomorrow. As the sfc low and front moves through Arkansas late today
through tonight it will cause the ThetaE gradient that has been
oriented from New Orleans to Shreveport and on NW into this front to
begin to stand or orient meridionally as it moves east. Another
large MCS is expected to form over NW TX late today and move east
with the sfc low through tonight. The orientation of this gradient
along the MS/AL state line will be in place overnight tonight. This
could be an issue as it would allow any large complex to also move
rapidly south along and west of this boundary into and through our
area. Severe wx numbers will be high for all locations tonight into
Sat so it is possible that severe storms could accompany this line.
The only model that is hinting at this solution is the NAM Nest.
Previous solutions from this model had this occurring this evening
but this would most likely be overnight tonight into the early
morning hours Sat. Timing is going to be the hardest thing to nail
down with any of these systems until thay form and start moving.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The sfc low should move east Saturday leaving the old frontal
boundary in tact and stalled in about the same place but maybe a bit
farther south. All other boudnaries look to fall back in place where
they are currently located as well. The ThetaE gradient looks to
orient itself back in a NW-SE position as it pivots around SELA to
the northwest. and you guessed it, this parade continues. But things
could change for a short time though as a cold front begins to move
southward from the Dakotas Monday. This would cause these boundaries
to move north or even dissiapate as the front would open the flow
over the deep south binging these high precip numbers northward
closer to this new bounary. The cold front should be capable of
increasing our precip numbers again by Thu or Fri and it could
move through early Sat. We will see.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR will be found at all terminals today outside TSRA. MCB and BTR
could fall into MVFR and IFR cigs overnight tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A very normal summer pattern is setting up over the northern gulf
which is an onshore flow as fronts or troughs stall well inland. The
fcast will reflect this as southerly winds of 10-15kt will remain
over all waters into the new week. Any storms that are capable of
developing or moving offshore will be able to produce erratic and
much higher wind speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  67  83  68 /  60  50  90  40
BTR  89  72  88  73 /  80  50  90  20
ASD  89  72  88  72 /  40  30  90  40
MSY  89  76  88  75 /  40  30  80  40
GPT  88  75  86  72 /  30  40  90  60
PQL  90  73  86  70 /  20  40  90  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE