Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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595 FXUS63 KLMK 271711 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 111 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy and becoming less humid today. * Dry and cool for most of the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Earlier severe convection has cleared the area, leaving behind trailing stratiform precip. Back edge of that precip shield is near I-65 at this time, and will probably take long enough to exit that pre-1st period wording will be warranted in the zone forecasts. Could see lingering precip in the early/mid-morning hours south and east of a line from BWG to LEX, then mostly dry across the board by early afternoon. Upper low over the Great Lakes is broad but not that deep, and the shortwave energy rotating through the trof axis stays pretty well to our north. This will limit the sensible wx impacts, so while we may hang on to some strato-cu into the afternoon, especially in the hillier terrain south and east of Lexington, precip chances appear too low to mention. Temps this afternoon will be close to climo in a well-mixed boundary layer. Drier air coming in from the west will allow dewpoints to drop into the 50s by late today, setting us up for a pleasantly cooler night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Notable upper level troughing lingers over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest through Tuesday night, keeping deeper moisture bottled up to our north. An amplifying upper level ridge builds from the Rockies to the Plains as sfc high pressure strengthens over the northern and central Plains. Ridging builds east across the MS and OH Valleys through late week, resulting in a stretch of pleasant weather. Dry weather holds on through at least Friday, with temps running solidly below climo and comfortable humidity levels. We could even see some morning lows dipping into the 40s Thursday and Friday, but that will be limited to the traditionally cooler spots. Eastern CONUS ridging becomes more amplified heading into next weekend, and precip timing will depend on exactly where that ridge axis sets up. If the ridge is overhead it will serve to block incoming systems, whereas a ridge position near or east of the Appalachians would open us up to increasing precip chances in the southerly flow ahead of the next wave. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 111 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Impacts/Confidence: - High confidence in gusty winds this afternoon and tomorrow. - Low to medium confidence in MVFR VIS tonight at BWG. Discussion...Surface cold front has slowed down considerably over the OH river vicinity which in turn has delayed the expected wind change from the southwest to the west. Nonetheless, wind speeds has started to pick up and some terminals are already experience gusts around 20 knots. Otherwise, earlier MVFR ceilings due to stratus layer have started to lift thanks to daytime mixing. Therefore, VFR conditions will follow this afternoon and continue through the rest of this TAF period. Only exception could be a brief period of MVFR VIS at BWG tonight due to the potential of shallow fog based on recent rainfall and light winds overnight. For tomorrow, winds will finally shift to the west-northwest and remain somewhat gusty after midmorning. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAS LONG TERM...RAS AVIATION...ALL