595
FXUS63 KLMK 271711
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
111 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Breezy and becoming less humid today.

*   Dry and cool for most of the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Earlier severe convection has cleared the area, leaving behind
trailing stratiform precip.  Back edge of that precip shield is near
I-65 at this time, and will probably take long enough to exit that
pre-1st period wording will be warranted in the zone forecasts.

Could see lingering precip in the early/mid-morning hours south and
east of a line from BWG to LEX, then mostly dry across the board by
early afternoon. Upper low over the Great Lakes is broad but not
that deep, and the shortwave energy rotating through the trof axis
stays pretty well to our north. This will limit the sensible wx
impacts, so while we may hang on to some strato-cu into the
afternoon, especially in the hillier terrain south and east of
Lexington, precip chances appear too low to mention.

Temps this afternoon will be close to climo in a well-mixed boundary
layer. Drier air coming in from the west will allow dewpoints to
drop into the 50s by late today, setting us up for a pleasantly
cooler night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Notable upper level troughing lingers over the Great Lakes and Upper
Midwest through Tuesday night, keeping deeper moisture bottled up to
our north. An amplifying upper level ridge builds from the Rockies
to the Plains as sfc high pressure strengthens over the northern and
central Plains.

Ridging builds east across the MS and OH Valleys through late week,
resulting in a stretch of pleasant weather. Dry weather holds on
through at least Friday, with temps running solidly below climo and
comfortable humidity levels. We could even see some morning lows
dipping into the 40s Thursday and Friday, but that will be limited
to the traditionally cooler spots.

Eastern CONUS ridging becomes more amplified heading into next
weekend, and precip timing will depend on exactly where that ridge
axis sets up. If the ridge is overhead it will serve to block
incoming systems, whereas a ridge position near or east of the
Appalachians would open us up to increasing precip chances in the
southerly flow ahead of the next wave.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Impacts/Confidence:
- High confidence in gusty winds this afternoon and tomorrow.
- Low to medium confidence in MVFR VIS tonight at BWG.

Discussion...Surface cold front has slowed down considerably over
the OH river vicinity which in turn has delayed the expected wind
change from the southwest to the west. Nonetheless, wind speeds has
started to pick up and some terminals are already experience gusts
around 20 knots. Otherwise, earlier MVFR ceilings due to stratus
layer have started to lift thanks to daytime mixing. Therefore, VFR
conditions will follow this afternoon and continue through the rest
of this TAF period. Only exception could be a brief period of MVFR
VIS at BWG tonight due to the potential of shallow fog based on
recent rainfall and light winds overnight. For tomorrow, winds will
finally shift to the west-northwest and remain somewhat gusty after
midmorning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...ALL