155
FXUS63 KLMK 231813
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
213 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Strong/severe storms possible region wide this afternoon with
    damaging winds, hail, and very heavy rainfall being the main
    threats.

*   Stormy pattern with a risk for localized flooding Thursday
    through Tuesday with strong/severe storms possible Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

The majority of the convection is on it`s way out of central
Kentucky as it continues east into eastern Kentucky. Earlier there
were some reports of hail in Hardin County, but it`s been awhile
since any reports have been received as the storms have weakened.
Convection is expected to work in from the west later this
afternoon/evening. The forecast has been nudged to match current
observations and to adjust for precipitation locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Remainder of the Overnight and into the Morning...

A 35-40kt LLJ located over the KY/TN border and a stalled surface
front over the Ohio River has allowed for convective initiation
within the last hour. As these showers and storms move NE, they will
be separated from the best (although weak) forcing and have very
limited instability to work with. Low stratus over the I-64 corridor
and north will remain until sunrise. Patchy fog is possible in low
lying areas.

Mid-morning through Early Afternoon...

Model guidance is not initiating well with current early morning
convection. However, given radar trends, much of the morning and
into the afternoon will likely remain dry. Drier conditions will
allow for increased heating and increased instability potential. Mid
60s dew points and high temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s
will lead to muggy conditions.

Late Afternoon - Evening...

Weak shortwave troughing and CVA will move over the region in the
afternoon. This feature, coupled with the stalled surface front and
ample moisture will allow for scattered convective initiation over
the region. Weak, but sufficient shear will keep convection
disorganized and pulse-like. Main threats will be gusty to damaging
winds, heavy rain with downbursts, and marginal hail. Very limited
tornado threat due to weak low-level shear.

Thursday Night into Friday Morning...

With sunset, the nocturnal inversion will settle into the region and
convection will dissipate. The remainder of the night will feature
weak ridging, thinning skies, and calm to light winds. These
conditions coupled with recent precip will likely bring some patchy
fog to the region in the early morning hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Overall unsettled pattern through the holiday weekend, with multiple
waves of showers and storms, but also dry periods in between. Best
chances for dry weather will be Saturday and Saturday night, with
fairly widespread showers and storms for portions of Friday and
especially Sunday. Organized severe weather is also in play on
Sunday.

The upper pattern Friday is quasi-zonal without much phasing between
the northern and southern streams. Sfc warm sector will push PWATs
up to 1.5 inches or more, with decent instability but not much
shear. Could see gusty winds, perhaps near-severe, with the steep
low-level lapse rates, as well as brief heavy rainfall resulting in
localized flooding.

Can`t rule out isolated/scattered convection on Saturday but that
should be a mostly dry day. Sunday is the most interesting day with
a sub-1000mb sfc low tracking to our north, moderate instability and
strong speed and directional shear. Organized severe weather is
possible with all modes on the table including tornadoes. SPC
extended outlook highlights central and western Kentucky, so all
interests in the lower Ohio Valley should remain weather aware
through the holiday weekend.

Cold front pushes through early Monday, but cyclonic flow will mean
a slow exit for precipitation. Better chances for dry weather Tue-
Wed under a more NW flow regime, with temps on the lower side of
climo.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Many east of Interstate 65 have enjoy mostly clear skies over the
last couple of hours. This is going to help destabilize things for
later this afternoon and evening, making thunderstorms more likely.
Overall, winds will remain light out of the south to southwest under
VFR ceilings. In the coming hours, all area TAF sites will likely
see at least vicinity thunder, and in and around thunderstorms, one
can expect reduced visibilities. During the second half of tonight,
low ceilings and reduced visibilities from fogging will become more
likely for much of southern Indiana and central Kentucky.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KDW
SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...KDW