196
FXUS63 KLMK 301444
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1044 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Dry weather and below normal to normal temperatures expected
    through Friday night.

*   Rain and storm chances return for the weekend and continue into
    next week. Temperatures and dewpoints will also be on a steady
    increase into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

It`s a beautiful late spring day with high pressure building
overhead. All forecast parameters are in good agreement with
reality; no changes are needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Quiet and dry weather will be in store today as surface high
pressure slowly drifts across the Great Lakes region. Anticyclonic
flow around the high will promote winds with a northerly component
across our region, though they will be quite light (<10mph) given a
relaxed pressure gradient. Much like the last couple of days, we
should see a fair weather cu-field develop by late morning or early
afternoon as the boundary layer begins to mix out. Highs today
likely top out in the mid to upper 70s with very comfortable
dewpoints (low 50s) by late May standards.

Skies will clear out overnight and with surface high pressure still
anchored to the north, we should have very light to calm winds.
Temperatures by dawn tomorrow morning will range from mid 40s (near
I-75 corridor) to mid 50s (west of I-65). Can`t rule out some patchy
fog in the typical fog-prone areas, but dry air in the low levels
should keep it from becoming too widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

We`ll close out the work week with another beautiful day on Friday,
thanks to upper level ridging aloft and sfc high pressure across the
eastern third of the US. Temperatures will reach the mid-upper 70s
across the board, and possibly a few spots in the lower 80s.

However, a more summer-like pattern appears to be the story for the
weekend and into the first half of next week. The upper level jet
pattern lacks any substantial jet streaks across the US, with any
notable wind energy remaining along and north of the US/Canadian
border. This will result in a more zonal flow across the region,
with only some subtle waves riding through the flow. A warm and
humid airmass will spread over the lower Ohio Valley, leading to
daily shower and storm chances and temps in the 80s for Saturday-
Wednesday. The warmer days will be Monday-Wednesday, with afternoon
highs in the mid-80s possible. Dewpoints will be muggy as well, with
mid-60s to low-70s expected early next week.

Our greatest chance for an increase in thunder coverage for the
period could come Saturday afternoon and evening as a sfc low tracks
across the I-70 corridor from St. Louis to Indy. Our probability of
thunder reaches 50% Saturday evening. Currently not expecting much
instability due to cloud cover throughout the day, with the 100-
member Grand Ensemble showing that 80 members suggest SBCAPE of less
than 500 J/kg. However, soundings do show some marginal shear due to
our proximity to the sfc low and accompanied 40-50kt LLJ. Mainly
expecting some heavy rainers as a result of the narrow corridor of
stronger moisture transport, with PWATs possibly reaching 1.8
inches. This would be among the daily max for sounding climatology.
This will support numerous showers with embedded scattered thunder
chances, but overall severe threat appears low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions expected through most of the forecast period. Most
sites have stayed fog-free through the morning with the exception of
HNB, though that will likely burn off by the start of the 12z TAF
issuance.

Otherwise, a 5-6kft fair weather cu-field will develop by late
morning or early afternoon and continue into the early evening
hours. Winds will stay light through the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...DM