857
FXUS66 KLOX 260337
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
837 PM PDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...25/836 PM.

The May gray pattern will continue through next Saturday. Varying
amounts of night and morning low clouds and fog are expected
for the coast and valleys during the period. Otherwise mostly
clear skies will prevail. Temperatures are forecast to be a few
degrees below normal into early next week then warm to near normal
to a few degrees above normal for mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...25/835 PM.

At upper levels, a broad northwest flow pattern will transition
to more of a zonal flow pattern the next few days, with gradually
rising heights across the region. Current satellite imagery
showing a chaotic marine layer cloud pattern this evening,
ACARS data showing a deep but weak marine inversion across
the LA basin this evening, around 3500 feet deep. Expecting
low clouds to fill in across most coastal/valley areas tonight
into Sunday morning, extending locally into the lower coastal
slopes. For Sunday night and Monday night, the marine layer
depth is expected to become more shallow due to the rising
heights across the region, resulting in less marine layer cloud
coverage across the interior.

Gusty NW winds are increasing this evening across SW Santa Barbara
county and may need a wind advisory tonight if winds become more
widespread. In general, expecting wind gusts to mostly be in the
35 to 45 mph range, strongest near Gaviota/Refugio. Also seeing
some gusty W-NW winds continue across the Antelope Valley and
I-5 corridor, which should mostly stay below advisory levels
tonight. However, still seeing some local gusts of 45 mph
near Lake Palmdale, so may need wind advisory for the foothills
tonight. These same areas are expected to see winds the next
few days, but generally expected to be weaker than today.

Still on track to see a warming trend Sunday and Monday, with
little change into Tuesday. Warming will be most noticeable
across the interior, especially the Antelope Valley where highs
will climb into the mid 80s on Sunday, then around 90 on Monday
and Tuesday.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...25/155 PM.

Not a whole lot of change can be expected in the extended period.
It looks like very weak upper troffiness with H5 heights around
584 dam will prevail Wed and Thu, then slightly stronger upper
level troffiness will persist Fri and Sat with H5 heights around
581-582 dam.

Good onshore pressure gradients to the N and E will help to keep
the marine layer pattern over the forecast area Wed thru Sat.
Varying amounts of night and morning low clouds and fog are
expected for the coast and vlys, moving farthest inland Fri and
Sat as the marine inversion deepens. Otherwise, mostly clear skies
can be expected.

Just subtle changes in temps can be expected each day, with
reading expected to be a few degrees below normal for the coast
and some vlys and a few degrees above normal elsewhere over inland
areas. Afternoon highs for the inland coast, vlys and lower mtns
should be in the 70s to mid 80s, while the Antelope Vly heats up
into the upper 80s to lower 90s each day.

Seasonably breezy onshore to northwest winds will likely continue
each afternoon to evening with interior areas prone to west to
northwest winds as well as southwest Santa Barbara County
potentially reaching close to Advisory levels at times.

&&

.AVIATION...25/2321Z.

At 2215Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3100 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 6600 feet with a temperature of 12 C.

For 00Z TAF package, high confidence in desert TAFs and low to
moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs. Lower confidence for
coastal/valley sites due to uncertainties in the behavior of the
marine layer stratus. Timing of flight category changes could be
off by +/- 4 hours and CIGs will range from IFR/MVFR levels north
of Point Conception and MVFR levels south of Point Conception.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of return of
MVFR CIGs could be +/- 4 hours of current 06Z forecast. Timing of
dissipation of MVFR could be +/- 2 hours of current 18Z forecast.
No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of return of
MVFR CIGs could be +/- 3 hours of current 09Z forecast. Timing of
dissipation of MVFR could be +/- 2 hours of current 18Z forecast.

&&

.MARINE...25/817 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in forecast.

Across the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds
are expected to continue through this weekend and much of next
week. Winds may drop below advisory levels during the morning and
early afternoon hours through Monday. Then Tuesday through
Thursday SCA conditions are expected to be fairly constant. There
is a 30-40% chance of Gale Force winds Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. As for seas, starting Tuesday morning seas will
build to SCA levels and becoming steep and choppy through at least
Thursday night.

Across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, SCA winds
this evening will tonight. Then, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA
winds during the afternoon and evening hours Sunday and Monday.
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, SCA level winds and seas are
likely (60-70%), with a 20-30% chance of Gale Force winds.

Across the southern inner waters, a SCA continues across the
western portion of the SBA channel tonight. There is a 30-40%
chance of SCA level winds across the western portion of the
Channel each afternoon and evening through Tuesday, followed by a
50% chance on Wednesday. South of the Channel Islands, winds are
expected to remain below SCA levels through at least Tuesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Gomberg/Sirard
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...Gomberg/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox