876
FXUS66 KLOX 251230
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
530 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...25/321 AM.

A warming trend is expected through early next week, most notably
away from the coast in response departing trough. Night to
morning low clouds will become less common away from the coast
during this time frame.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...25/323 AM.

We have observed patchy drizzle early this morning for portions
of eastern LA County, focused in the foothills, and near the
Central Coast. We may see this continue at times especially for
eastern Los Angeles county through mid morning.

A strong eddy indicated by a strong -2.5 mb Santa Barbara to San
Diego surface pressure gradient has supported a deep marine layer
once again focused across southern areas. However, low clouds
were slow to fill in as a low cloud replacement cycle was
possibly underway (when low clouds gradually reform at a
different height).

A warming trend is likely through Monday, especially for
elevations above 1500 feet or so as the marine layer and
associated low clouds will likely shrink in height and coverage
in response to a departing trough and associated increasing weight
of the atmosphere. Most coastal areas will only warm 3-6 degrees
with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s by Monday. Elevations above
1000-1500 feet and especially interior areas will see warming of
10-15 degrees with highs in the 80s to near 90.

West to northwest flow will continue through Monday with a 30-50
percent chance of advisory level winds each afternoon and evening
for areas prone to northwest winds such as southwest Santa Barbara
County and western Antelope Valley.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...25/323 AM.

We have only moderate confidence in the forecast mid week and
beyond as the timing of weak trough/ridge systems becomes out of
sync within our guidance. This will have limited impacts at the
coast with daytime highs likely within three degrees of forecast
with continued mid 60s to mid 70s for daytime highs. Away from the
coast, including many coastal valleys, may be 5-8 degrees off of
the forecast and could be the difference between highs near 80 or
90-95.

Night to morning low clouds will likely prevail for coastal areas,
expanding into the valleys and lower coastal mountains at times
through this period as a weak trough or two progresses through
the region. Seasonably breezy onshore to northwest winds will
likely continue each afternoon to evening with interior areas
prone to west to northwest winds as well as southwest Santa
Barbara County potentially reaching advisory levels at times.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1230Z.

Around 12Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 4100 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 5600 feet with a temperature of 11 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs and low to moderate confidence in
coastal/valley TAFs. Lower confidence in coastal/valley sites due
to uncertainties in the behavior of the marine layer stratus.
CIGs, especially south of Point Conception, are very patchy and
dissapating and reforming constantly, and will likely continue
the behavior through the morning. Otherwise, timing of flight cat
changes could be off by +/- 3 hours.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. CIGs will likely scatter
and reform through the morning. Timing of flight cat changes
could be off by +/- 3 hours. No significant easterly wind
component is expected.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. CIGs will likely
scatter and reform through the morning, with a 30% chance of
continuing the behavior through whole period.

&&

.MARINE...25/323 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in forecast, with higher confidence
in winds relative to seas.

Across the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds
are expected to continue through this weekend and much of next
week. Winds may briefly drop below advisory levels during the
morning and very early afternoon hours Sunday and Monday, but
restrengthen to SCA levels by late afternoon. There is a 30-40%
chance of Gale Force winds Tuesday night through Wednesday. As for
seas, starting Tuesday morning seas will build to SCA levels and
becoming steep and choppy through at least Thursday night.

Across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, SCA winds
will push into the western portion of the waters this afternoon
and evening. Then, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA winds during
the afternoon and evening hours Sunday and Monday. Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday, SCA level winds and seas are likely
(60-70%), with a 20-30% chance of Gale Force winds.

Across the southern inner waters, there is a 70-80% chance of SCA
level winds across the the Santa Barbara Channel (strongest in the
western portion) through this evening. There is a 30% chance of
SCA level winds across the western portion of the Channel each
afternoon and evening through Wednesday. South of the Channel
Islands, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds pushing into the
western portion of the southern inner waters tonight with choppy
SCA seas.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Lund/Gomberg
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox