015
FXUS66 KLOX 310018
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
518 PM PDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...30/136 PM.

Very little change expected in most areas Friday and over the
weekend, except likely increasing low clouds and fog along the
Central Coast and cooler temperatures there. Temperatures will
remain below normal for coast and valleys through the weekend
while farther inland temperatures will cool to near normal. A
warming trend is expected next week, especially inland Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...30/155 PM.

The marine layer depth dropped last night as weak high pressure
develops over the region. Onshore flow remains quite strong,
however, and this combined with a weak coastal eddy is keeping
temperatures below normal across coast and valleys with a
seasonably stubborn marine layer near the beaches south of Pt
Conception with some beaches staying cloudy through the
afternoon.

For tonight the main change will be that low clouds are expected
to start pushing back north along the Central Coast leading to
what likely will be some areas of dense fog there and a cooling
trend Friday, especially near the coast. Otherwise, not a lot of
noticeable change expected through the weekend. At upper levels a
weak trough will pass through the area later Saturday into Sunday
causing interior areas too cool a few degrees with some breezy
afternoon winds. The marine layer will push slightly farther
inland the next few days and take longer to clear off.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...30/220 PM.

A strong ridge of high pressure is expected to set up shop next
week along the West Coast all the way up into southern Canada.
This will bring a warming trend to the area, but with the focus
being interior areas that are far removed from the cooling
effects of the still chilly Pacific Ocean. Monday won`t be much
different from the weekend weather conditions, however starting
Tuesday and going through at least Thursday temperatures will be
on the rise, especially inland. Onshore flow, while still quite
strong during the afternoon, will dip slightly Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings which should be enough to bring at least a
couple degrees of warming to coastal areas as well as earlier
marine layer clearing. Valleys and other interior areas will warm
up 3-6 degrees both Tuesday and Wednesday, bring warmer valley
highs close to 90 and the Antelope Valley around 100 or slightly
higher by Wednesday. While these are the most likely high
temperatures, there is still a 20% chance of highs close to 105
in the Antelope Valley and up to 95 in the warmest coastal
valleys, pending how the upper level pattern evolves and how that
impacts the strength of the onshore flow. Meanwhile, coastal
areas are expected to top out in the upper 60s and 70s with some
beaches still mired in marine layer stratus.

&&

.AVIATION...31/0018Z.

At 0000Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 5100 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence in the desert TAFs and KPRB, low confidence in
KSMX and KSBP and moderate confidence for the remaining sites. For
the Central Coast sites, there is a 30-40 percent chance that no
low clouds occur. Also, the timing of onset of low clouds is lower
certainty. As for the other coastal and valley sites, the return
of cigs may be off by +/-2 hours.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. The timing of CIGs
return could differ by up to 2 hours from TAF time. There is a 30
percent chance that conds remain MVFR through the overnight
period. No significant east wind expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a chance that CIGS
arrival could be delayed up to 3 hours from TAF time of 08Z.

&&

.MARINE...30/126 PM.

Moderate confidence in forecast.

In the outer waters, moderate and steep seas are at Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) levels but are generally trending downwards. SCA
level winds will overspread much of the waters this afternoon and
evening. Winds and seas are likely (70% chance) to be below SCA
level by late tonight. There is 30% chance of SCA level winds
Friday and Friday night in the northern two zones (PZZ670/673).
SCA level winds/seas are likely (70-80% chance) much of the time
Saturday through Monday.

In the inner waters N of Pt Sal, SCA level NW winds are likely
(60-70% chance) to continue through this afternoon and evening.
SCA conditions are likely to drop off by late this evening, and
stay below through Saturday morning. SCA level winds are likely
(50-70%) chance during the afternoon/evening hours Saturday
through Tuesday.

In the inner waters S of Pt. Sal, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA
winds in western portion of the SBA Channel in the
afternoon/evening hours today, and Saturday through Monday.
Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Smith
MARINE...DB/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox