246
FXUS66 KLOX 022018
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
118 PM PDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...02/115 PM.

A warming trend will establish through Wednesday due to high
pressure aloft building in and weakening onshore flow. The warming
trend will be most pronounced away the coast. Closer to the
coast, night through morning low clouds and fog will persist with
continued moderate to strong onshore flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...02/115 PM.

High confidence in a warming trend focused across Coastal Valleys
to interior through Tuesday or Wednesday as a modest ridge of
high pressure builds into the region. The marine layer should
somewhat shelter coastal areas from the warming influence of the
ridge. It will also continue to provide night to morning low
clouds. The pattern continues to look favorable for patchy
drizzle, especially Monday night into early Tuesday. Low
confidence in the extent of the marine layer especially into
Tuesday due to competing forces between the building ridge
pressing down on the marine layer and the potential for a Catalina
Eddy acting to prop it up. This leaves us with only moderate
confidence in daytime highs across coastal valleys in particular.
Daytime highs will likely warm 10-15 degrees between today and
Tuesday or Wednesday, except closer to 5 degrees along the coast
and perhaps into lower elevation coastal valleys. By Tuesday this
will likely result in highs generally in the 70s near the coast,
80s to near 90 for coastal valleys, and 90s to near 100 further
inland.

Continued northwest flow across the region will support gusty
winds at times focused southwest Santa Barbara and the I-5
corridor in the mountains east to the Antelope Valley. A trough
passing to the north late Monday may (30-50 percent chance) boost
winds into advisory territory.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...02/115 PM.

The peak of the heat will likely be Wednesday for many areas,
although some coastal and coastal valley areas may peak on Tuesday
due to offshore trends and the potential for less marine
influence on that day. Will maintain the Excessive Heat Watch for
Wednesday, covering many far interior areas. However, there is
some concern that onshore trends and an earlier sea breeze
Wednesday may stall warming for some of these areas even as the
ridge peaks in intensity overhead. There is a small chance that
the heat hangs on long enough for some interior areas to need some
type of heat product into Thursday.

Lower confidence in the forecast heading into next weekend as a
low pressure system may move into the region from the south or
southwest. There is a 10 percent chance (leaving a 90 percent
chance that unremarkable early June weather continues) that this
setup is favorable for showers or thunderstorms for interior areas
and drizzle or light showers for closer to the coast. Either way
temperatures should cool at least somewhat, possibly significantly
for interior areas should the more active weather scenario play
out.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1756Z.

At 17Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3000 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 5200 feet with a temperature of 17 deg C.

Moderate to hi confidence in the 18Z TAFs. Low clouds with
IFR/MVFR cigs over the coast and adjacent vlys S of Point
Conception will clear to near the coast by early this afternoon,
except MVFR cigs are likely to persist thru the afternoon at KOXR
and KCMA. IFR/MVFR cigs will likely spread back inland tonight
and affect all coast and adjacent vly airfields including KPRB and
continue into late Mon morning except scattering out of KPRB by
16Z Mon morning. The timing of the dissipation and onset of low
clouds may be off +/- an hour or two, with the largest uncertainty
of the onset of low clouds tonight for KSBA and KPRB.

For KWJF and KPMD, there is hi confidence VFR conds will continue
thru the TAF period. Gusty SW-W winds will affect these airfields
for most of the fcst period.

KLAX...Moderate to hi confidence in the 18Z TAF. MVFR cigs will
likely persist until early this afternoon with a 50% chance of
the low clouds scattering out. MVFR cigs will move back in this
evening and continue tonight thru Mon afternoon. The timing of
dissipation and onset of the low clouds may be off +/- an hour or
two. There is a 20% chance of an east wind component of 7-8 kt
from 09Z-15Z Mon.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 18Z TAF. MVFR cigs are expected
until about 21Z then VFR conds will prevail into this evening.
MVFR cigs should move back in by 06Z this and continue thru the
rest of the fcst period. The timing of the dissipation and onset
of the low clouds may be off +/- an hour or two.

&&

.MARINE...02/117 PM.

For the outer waters, gale force wind gusts can be expected
through late tonight and a Gale Warning is in effect. For all the
outer waters zones, SCA conds are expected late tonight thru Tue
morning, but will also continue (50%-60% chance) for the northern
outer waters zone (PZZ670) through Wed night and for the central
outer waters (PZZ673) through Tue night. SCA level seas may
linger into Thu then all waters will have conds below SCA levels
on Fri.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds are likely
(70-80% chance) during the afternoon/eve hours today and Mon.
Though winds will drop off tonight/Mon morning, seas will likely
remain near or at advisory levels so the SCA is in effect thru Mon
night. SCA conds are not expected Tue thru Fri.

In the inner waters S of Pt. Sal, there is a 20% chance of SCA
winds in western portion of the SBA Channel during this
afternoon/eve, and a 50-60% chance Mon afternoon/eve. Otherwise,
conds over the inner waters should be below SCA levels thru Fri.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Wednesday morning through
      Wednesday evening for zones 344-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...Hall/RM

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox