Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
181 FXUS66 KLOX 042141 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 241 PM PDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS...04/240 PM. High pressure aloft over the region will continue a warming trend through Wednesday, most pronounced away from the coast. Weakening onshore flow will thin the marine layer depth some and keep clouds confined to coastal and valley areas. A hot air mass will remain in place across the interior valleys for much of this week, with temperatures well above normal for this time of year. Closer to the coast, the warming trend will be moderated due to persistent night through morning low clouds and fog and a moderate to strong onshore flow. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...04/240 PM. No significant changes to the forecast. Heat Advisories were added for the I-14/Acton area of the LA mountains and Cuyama Valley Wednesday and Thursday, complementing the already issued Heat Advisory for interior San Luis Obispo County including the Paso Robles area and the Excessive Heat Warning for the Antelope Valley. The heat can have significant impacts on anyone, but sensitive groups like the very young or old and those with prolonged exposure outside are particularly vulnerable to heat impacts. If possible, take steps to limit exposure from the heat by taking breaks inside with air conditioning or by finding shade and also drinking plenty of water. High confidence in a warming trend focused across Coastal Valleys to interior through Wednesday as a strong (for early in the season) ridge of high pressure builds into the region. The marine layer will continue to shelter coastal areas from much of the warming compared to interior areas. It will also continue to provide night to morning low clouds with dense fog becoming more Low confidence in the extent of the marine layer especially into Tuesday due to competing forces between the building ridge pressing down on the marine layer and the potential for a Catalina Eddy acting to prop it up. This leaves us with only moderate confidence in daytime highs across coastal valleys in particular. If marine influence is less than anticipated, Heat Advisories may need to be expanded to a few inland coastal valleys. We continue to advertise daytime highs of 98-108 for interior areas, 85-95 coastal valleys, and 70-85 coastal areas. Guidance has slowed with the breakdown and eastward progression of the ridge, so the cool down may be slow enough to maintain heat impacts through Friday with some potential for some of the heat products to be extended through then. There is just enough mid level moisture arriving from the south to warrant around a 10 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms focused across the higher mountains in Los Angeles, Ventura, and perhaps Santa Barbara County as early as Thursday. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...04/240 PM. Lower confidence in the forecast next weekend the details related to the ridge breaking down remains elusive. There is a 10 percent chance (leaving a 90 percent chance that unremarkable early June weather continues) a baggy trough setting up will be favorable for showers or thunderstorms for interior areas and drizzle or light showers for closer to the coast. Either way temperatures should cool at least somewhat, possibly significantly for interior areas should the more active weather scenario play out. && .AVIATION...04/1637Z. At 16Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1900 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 5200 feet with a temperature of 20 Celsius. Moderate confidence on better clearing today compared to yesterday. High confidence in all valley airports becoming VFR by 19Z. Moderate confidence in VFR at all coastal sites by 19-22Z. Chances of VFR today at KSBA (50%) at KOXR (50%) KCMA (70%) KSMO (80%) KLAX (80%) KLGB (80%). Timing of cloud arrival and coverage of low clouds tonight expected to be later and less than yesterday. Ceilings likely to be lower as well. KLAX...80% chance of ceiling clearing. 19Z is the most likely time, but could be as early as 18Z or as late as 21Z. Clouds will return as early as as 02Z and as late as 06Z. Ceilings should be OVC008-012. High confidence in any east winds staying well below 08 knots. KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions today by 17-18Z. There is a 50% chance of ceilings forming again tonight, as early as 09Z and as late as 12Z. If ceilings form, expect 1-3SM BKN005-008. && .MARINE...04/937 AM. Gusty northwest winds will remain over the offshore waters off the Central Coast, but will be less expansive. There is a 70 percent chance of Gale Force winds this afternoon and evening beyond 30 miles from the coast. Otherwise, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and/or seas will impacts the offshore waters down to San Nicolas Island and the nearshore Central Coast Waters. These winds will generate choppy seas over most of the coastal waters. SCA winds are likely through Thursday through the offshore waters off the Central Coast. Otherwise, high confidence winds will stay under SCA, although seas near 10 feet are possible offshore. Southeast winds will be prevalent each morning south of Point Conception, which locally could exceed 15 knots near islands and Channels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 38-343-344-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Munroe AVIATION...RK MARINE...Kittell SYNOPSIS...Hall/RM weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox