Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
577 FXUS63 KLSX 252346 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 646 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Severe thunderstorms are expected late tonight through Sunday morning, primary threat is damaging winds. -Severe thunderstorms are expected again during Sunday afternoon and evening, with damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail possible. -Locally heavy rainfall, up to 2-5 inches, is possible with both rounds of thunderstorms on Sunday. -Next week will usher in a pattern change toward drier, more seasonal weather. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Sunday Night) Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Surface ridge will continue to slide off to the east this evening. Otherwise, the upper level trough over the Rockies has begun to lift out towards the Great Lakes region. The majority of the latest deterministic as well as ensemble models have good agreement with the timing, strength and placement of the system as it moves through the area late tonight through Sunday. As a surface low deepens in the lee of the Rockies, the accompanying warm front will lift northward across the forecast area late tonight. Still expect convection will initiate on the nose of a strong southerly low level jet (40-60kts) over central Kansas, advecting in plenty of low level moisture and instability as it congeals into an MCS. As the low level jet veers, the MCS will slide east across the region. Still some uncertainty on the exact track of the complex, with some guidance solutions pushing it along the I-70 corridor, while others push it across southern Missouri and Illinois. As for the threat for severe storms late tonight through midday Sunday, strong deep layer shear (0 to 6km bulk shear of 40-50kts) as well as 3000+ J/kg MU CAPE combined with cold pool support from the MCS will allow portions of the MCS to become strong to severe. The main threat will be damaging winds and a low threat of tornadoes. The first round of storms will weaken and exit the region by midday Sunday. Then there is the matter of a second round which will be conditional depending on where the atmosphere can recover from the morning activity. So where ever the outflow from the morning activity ends up, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop during the afternoon and into the evening as the mid level trough moves through and erodes inhibition. Latest RAP soundings have MU CAPEs back around 3000+ J/kg with 45 to 50 knots of effective shear, which will support supercells with primary threats of very large hail (2"+) and damaging winds (up to 80 mph). Even though confidence is highest that the best location for severe storms will be in the warm sector south of the outflow boundary, could see enough recovery north of the outflow where the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes, so a few significant tornadoes (EF2 or stronger) are possible. Another issue to deal with will be locally heavy rainfall as each round of storms move through. Yesterday portions of west central and southwest Illinois received up wards of 3 to 5 inches of rain, with few locations in excess of 6 inches. If thunderstorms train over this area, the threat for flash flooding will be greater. If the storms either don`t train or they move over areas that have not gotten as much rain, the threat for flash flooding will be lower. With the possibility of 2 to 5 inches of rain, have issued a flood watch for areas along and south of a Pittsfield, IL to Monroe City, MO line from 06z Sunday until 06z Monday. Byrd && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Saturday) Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Even though dry and mild weather is expected through most of the work week, another shortwave will rotate around the surface low over the Great Lakes region. This could bring another round of showers Monday afternoon, but for now confidence is low. Beyond that, pattern begins to change late in the work week with next chances for rain by next weekend. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening) Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 The focus for the TAF period will be two rounds of severe thunderstorms passing through the forecast area. The first will arrive late tonight/early tomorrow morning. The time of arrival of this round is trending earlier, so made that adjustment in this TAF issuance. Although we have prevailing MVFR conditions, a direct impact from a robust thunderstorm will create brief heavily reduced flight conditions due to heavy rain. We expect prevailing wind gusts of 20-25 kts during this round, though stronger thunderstorms may be capable of producing wind gusts of up to 60 kts. We expect a break late Sunday morning into the early afternoon before convection develops ahead of a cold front. This round is also expected to produce severe thunderstorms with all hazards possible including up to 70 kt gusts, 2+ inch hail, flash flooding, and possibly a significant tornado in the strongest thunderstorms. Again, heavily restricted flight conditions are expected in case of a direct impact to a terminal. This round will last into Sunday evening. The wind field will remain generally southerly for most of the area through Sunday evening when winds veer to northwesterly behind the cold front. They`ll also continue to increase tonight and tomorrow ahead of the front. Wind speed and direction will be impacted by convection during most of the period, and may not always reflect the overall pattern. Jaja && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Sunday through late Sunday night for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO- Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO- Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO- Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Sunday through late Sunday night for Bond IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX