307
FXUS63 KLSX 242103
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
403 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Thunderstorms will continue to develop through this evening with
 some strong to severe storms possible and capable of primarily
 large hail and damaging winds with a low threat of tornadoes.

-Severe thunderstorms are expected late Saturday night into Sunday morning
 and possibly again during the afternoon/evening, with large
 hail, damaging winds, and a tornado possible.

-Next week will usher in a pattern change toward drier, more
 seasonal weather.


&&

.SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Storms continue to develop along and north of an outflow boundary
that stretches from north-central Missouri, where it intersects
with a cold front, southeastward into southwestern Illinois.
Forecast soundings in this area show that a very unstable airmass
with ML CAPEs 3000-4000 J/kg, ML LR of 7-8C/km and effective shear
of 35 to 50 kts will support organized storms, including
supercells and severe multicells, with large hail and damaging
winds the main threats, though can`t rule out a tornado or two as
well. Also, the latest HRRR indicates mean PWs around 1.5" and the
potential for back-building convection north of St. Louis that
could result in excessive rainfall rates up to 2"/hr, so flash
flood warnings may be needed.

Otherwise, the front will continue to move east through this evening
and convection will gradually diminish and weaken. The cold front
will exit the forecast area by 07z Saturday.

As a surface ridge builds into the region on Saturday, it will be
the pick day of the holiday weekend. Sunny, dry and warm conditions
expected with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

In the meantime, the upper level trough over the western CONUS will
begin to lift out towards the Great Lakes. As the associated surface
low deepens in the lee of the Rockies and accompanying warm front
lifts northward, convection will initiate on the nose of a strong
low level jet (50-60kts) Saturday evening as moist, unstable air
surges into the central Plains. Then as the low level jet veers over
time, the MCS that develops over northern KS will slide east across
the area. Still some uncertainty on the exact location of the warm
front/convection due to discrepancies among the deterministic as
well as ensemble models. For now stuck with the latest NBM solution
which has the best chances of rain along and north of I-70 late
Saturday night through Sunday. As for any strong to severe storms,
the best location will be along the southern periphery of the
complex where the strongest instability/shear will be (MU CAPEs
between 2000-3000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear 40-50kts), with all
hazards possible. Once the complex moves through, there is still
some uncertainty on afternoon/evening redevelopment depending on how
much the atmosphere can recover, where any outflow boundary sets up
and timing of the main cold front. So for now feel that the best
time for severe weather will be with the complex late Saturday night
through Sunday morning, though can`t rule out additional strong to
severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening.

Byrd
&&

.LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Next Friday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

As the system exits the region, the showers and storms will taper
off from west to east by late Sunday night. Another shortwave
will rotate around the surface low over the Great Lakes region.
This will bring another round of showers and a few thunderstorms
Monday afternoon. Then for the remainder of the forecast period,
upper level ridge will build over the western CONUS with a trough
in the east, so forecast area will remain in northwest flow aloft.
Thus temperatures will be a bit below normal with dry weather
through Thursday before the pattern begins to change late in the
work week.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Morning MVFR SC has lifted and scattered out late this morning.
Otherwise, as the cold front approaches the forecast area this
afternoon, storms will develop and spread eastward. Expect around
a two hour period of storms at TAF sites as they move through with
brief MVFR cigs and visibilities. Then gusty south to southwest
winds will veer to the west to northwest by 23z-00z at KUIN, KCOU
and KJEF, while the front will not move through the St. Louis
metro area until around 04z Saturday, then winds will diminish for
rest of forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX