Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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896 FXUS64 KLUB 241114 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 614 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 An upper level trough to our north will provide some slight relief from the above normal temperatures as it swings a cold front through the region early this morning. As of 2 AM CDT latest surface observations and West Texas Mesonet data shows the cold front entering the northern Texas Panhandle. This front is expected to track southward into the far southern Texas Panhandle just before day-break, making its way completely through the FA by the late morning hours. Post frontal winds will shift out of the north, becoming briefly breezy through the morning hours. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, and let me emphasize the slightly part once more, with temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 across our southern most row of counties. Winds will then begin to shift out of the east this evening before veering out of the southeast tonight as a surface high establishes to our east and a surface low develops over eastern New Mexico. Overnight lows will be similar to previous nights in the 50s to low 60s under mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The long term forecast is split into two regimes, the first being this weekend into early next week with hot and dry conditions leading to fire weather concerns and the second being towards the middle of next week as the dryline returns west bringing chances for strong to severe thunderstorms back to the forecast area. Saturday morning will start off with a shortwave moving east over the western U.S. with nearly zonal flow over the forecast area. This will lead to lee cyclogenesis in southeastern Colorado through the day which will boost southwest surface winds across the forecast area. The dryline will quickly sharpen across the eastern third of the forecast area in the morning but should move east of our forecast area by the afternoon. This will set the stage for critical fire weather concerns for most locations on the Caprock and additional details can be found in the fire weather discussion below. The downsloping winds will allow temperatures to climb back above normal with high temperatures in the mid 90s to near the century mark. Surface low will slide into Kansas on Sunday which will shift winds around to the west and northwest and not be quite as strong as Saturday. This will keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler on Sunday with most locations topping out in the 90s. The dry airmass will remain in place though so another day of critical fire weather conditions is expected. Upper-level heights will begin to increase on Monday as a ridge begins to move into the central CONUS. Fortunately these height rises won`t lead to a bump up in high temperatures as it will be offset by a surface cold front that will swing through the region Monday morning. Hence high temperatures Monday will be slightly cooler once again in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Behind the front winds will become easterly which will begin the process of moisture return to the forecast area. Despite a ridge remaining overhead through the end of next week, it is the end of May and with a dryline in place somewhere in our forecast area and a few embedded shortwaves several days of strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible Tuesday through the end of next week. Obviously it is a bit too early to get into specifics but definitely appears to be a more active pattern that bears watching. /WI && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 MVFR to IFR CIGs are beginning to lift this morning at KCDS with VFR conditions expected to prevail at all terminals for the remainder of the period. The cold front will continue to track southward through the terminals this morning, shifting winds out of the north. Expect a brief period of breezy northerly winds around 20 knots behind the front before diminishing in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 On Saturday, a dryline will surge eastward and stall in the eastern Rolling Plains. Behind this dryline, downsloping southwesterly winds will boost temperatures into the mid to upper 90s and bring a much drier airmass into the South Plains and portions of the far southern Texas Panhandle. This drier air combined with the hot temperatures will drop afternoon relative humidity values into the middle single digits across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Southwest winds will also become breezy to low end windy, with sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts to 40 mph. The combination of breezy and dry conditions will lead to RFTI values of 5-8 across the Caprock. Therefore, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued from noon Saturday until midnight Sunday for the far southwestern and south central Texas Panhandle and the South Plains. Humidity recoveries overnight will be poor only rebounding into the 20-30 percent range by Sunday morning. This will help set the stage for another day of critical fire weather conditions on Sunday as the dry airmass remains in place. Fortunately, wind speeds will be weaker on Sunday with sustained winds of 15-20 mph but when combined with afternoon relative humidity values in the upper single digits RFTIs of 3-5 can be expected on the Caprock. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...12