Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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280 FXUS64 KLUB 231914 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 214 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 The main concern for today remains the threat of possibly severe thunderstorms across the far southeastern Panhandle and eastern Rolling Plains. The dryline continues to track eastward across the forecast area and is currently along the I-27/US-87 corridor. Current high-res guidance is not as aggressive with storm development as earlier runs from this morning. Nonetheless, with clearing skies, higher CAPE values will be present over the aforementioned area and along with subtle shortwaves propagating aloft is enough to merit at least a slight chance of isolated severe weather, with large hail being the primary threat. Any storms that do develop should quickly end by mid-evening as the dryline departs to the east. Fire weather concerns remain into the evening as well. A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 9 PM for the far southwestern Panhandle and western Rolling Plains. Humidities in these areas have already fallen into the single digits and winds will gradually increase through the afternoon. Highs will top out in the low-to-mid 90s. Winds will switch to generally out of the north across the region Friday morning as a cold front moves through. Although the front will not bring any precipitation, it will at least bring high temperatures down around 5-10 degrees from that of today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 The theme for the extended will be hot, dry and breezy through the weekend ahead of the return of precipitation chances by the middle of next week. A broad trough axis will bring a 60-70 knot jet streak over the forecast area Saturday with deepening surface lee cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado. Downsloping southwesterly surface flow with hot temperatures and dry conditions, as the dryline will be east of the Rolling Plains, will give way to steep lapse and deep boundary layer mixing up to 700mb. Combined with the strengthening surface low and increase in pressure gradient, breezy 20 to 30 mph winds are expected through the afternoon hours. This in turn will give way to the potential for critical fire weather concerns west of the I-27 corridor and elevated concerns elsewhere. Heading into Sunday, another upper low will quickly follow in behind the previous wave and move into the Northern Plains with westerly flow aloft. As a result, another lee cyclone will develop across northeast New Mexico. Continued hot and dry conditions will persist with breezy west surface winds. Thus, elevated fire weather concerns are possible across the forecast area with near critical concerns across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and western South Plains. As the upper low moves farther east, the surface high will push south into the Central Plains with a cold front to pass through the area by early Monday morning. Given the weak and shallow nature of the frontal boundary, temperatures will still warm to near or slightly above normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s, despite northeasterly post frontal surface winds. Heading into the middle of next week, the upper ridge will traverse the western CONUS into the central CONUS. Several disturbances embedded into the northwesterly flow aloft will give way to the potential for showers and thunderstorms to return to the area, especially with an increase in low level moisture due to upslope surface flow. In spite of the weak ridge aloft, temperatures will remain slightly cooler but near normal towards the middle of next week due to these southeast surface winds. Model solutions towards the end of the week begin to deviate and depending on the setup, the forecast may favor another cold front, more precipitation and cooler temperatures looking into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Breezy southwest winds are expected through this afternoon before diminishing into the evening. Gusty northerly winds will develop Friday afternoon behind a cold front. VFR will continue. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the for the far southwestern Panhandle and western Rolling Plains until 9 PM this evening. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidities in the single digits are expected. RFTI values have increased in and around the Friona area and will increase farther south through the afternoon. A cold front will move through the area early Friday morning, with surface winds switching to generally out of the north. Although these will be around the same magnitude as today`s winds, humidity and RFTI values will be lower and overall fire concerns will be much less. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021-022-027- 028-033-039. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...19