Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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847 FXUS64 KLUB 251721 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1221 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Flow aloft will shift out of the southwest today as an upper level shortwave trough tracks through the High Plains region. At the surface, winds will begin to veer out of the southwest by the early morning hours as a surface low in the lee of the Rockies develops. Southwest winds will increase through the morning hours, becoming strong around 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph as the pressure gradient begins to tighten. These strong southwesterly winds in addition to increased thickness values will help boost temperatures in the 90s today across the FA, with a triple digit temperature not out of the question. As the surface trough to our north begins to track eastward, it will help push the dryline eastward across the FA this afternoon. As it stands, most guidance has the dryline along or just east of our far eastern column of counties. However, the NAM continues to keep the dryline slightly farther west along a line that extends from Hall County to Kent County. In addition some of the HREF members have joined in on the fun and begun to suggest some isolated storms developing across the far eastern Rolling Plains this afternoon. Although the chance of thunderstorms developing remains slim at this point, it cannot be ruled out. Especially with a fair amount of moisture present east of the dryline with dew point temperatures in the 60s and 70s expected, some forcing aloft, and lift provided from the dryline. Therefore, have opted for a slight chance mention for thunderstorms across portions of our far eastern column of counties where the better forcing and moisture resides. Dry, warm, and windy conditions west of the dryline will lead to critical fire weather conditions across the South Plains and far southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. Therefore a Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon today through midnight Sunday. Do your part and avoid activities that may cause a spark to avoid wildfires! && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Long term forecast remains on track for a more active weather pattern for most of next week. Sunday morning a 990 mb surface low will slide into Kansas which will shift winds around to the west and northwest and not be quite as strong as today. This will keep high temperatures a degree or two cooler on Sunday with most locations topping out in the 90s. The dry airmass will remain in place though so another day of at least near-critical fire weather conditions is expected. Upper-level heights will begin to increase over the forecast area on Monday as a ridge begins to move into the central CONUS. Fortunately these height rises won`t lead to a bump up in high temperatures as it will be offset by a surface cold front that will swing through the region Monday morning. Hence high temperatures Monday will be slightly cooler once again in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Surface high pressure will settle into NW Oklahoma Monday night which will veer winds around to the southeast across the forecast area. This will allow Gulf of Mexico moisture to begin streaming back into West Texas. Despite a ridge remaining overhead through the end of next week, it is the end of May and with a dryline in place somewhere in our forecast area and a few embedded shortwaves several days of strong to severe thunderstorms look possible Tuesday through next weekend. Obviously the more important details such as timing of the shortwaves, amount of capping remaining in place, and location of strongest lift with the dryline all remain uncertain this far out but next week is shaping up to be an active stretch of weather. /WI && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period as dry air and west winds speed eastward across the forecast area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 The dryline will track eastward across the forecast area where it is expected to stall across the eastern Rolling Plains this afternoon. West of the dryline, strong southwesterly winds around 20 to 30 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph, will work to boost temperatures in the 90s which will lead to a very dry air mass. These strong winds, warm temperatures, and drier air mass will lead to minimum RH values in the single digits this afternoon across the far southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. RFTI values on the order of 5-8 can be expected across areas west of the I-27 corridor thanks to the dry and breezy conditions in place. Therefore a Red Flag Warning remains in effect from noon today through midnight Sunday. Overnight humidity recoveries will be poor on the Caprock only rebounding into the 20-30 percent range. While winds will be slightly lower on Sunday the dry airmass will remain leading to another day of at least near-critical fire weather conditions. Sustained westerly winds of 15-20 mph combined with afternoon relative humidity values in the upper single digits will still lead to RFTIs of 3-5 on the Caprock. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ021>023- 027>029-033>035-039>041. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...07