938
FXUS64 KLUB 251116
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
616 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Flow aloft will shift out of the southwest today as an upper level
shortwave trough tracks through the High Plains region. At the
surface, winds will begin to veer out of the southwest by the early
morning hours as a surface low in the lee of the Rockies develops.
Southwest winds will increase through the morning hours, becoming
strong around 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph as the pressure
gradient begins to tighten. These strong southwesterly winds in
addition to increased thickness values will help boost temperatures
in the 90s today across the FA, with a triple digit temperature not
out of the question. As the surface trough to our north begins to
track eastward, it will help push the dryline eastward across the
FA this afternoon. As it stands, most guidance has the dryline
along or just east of our far eastern column of counties. However,
the NAM continues to keep the dryline slightly farther west along
a line that extends from Hall County to Kent County. In addition
some of the HREF members have joined in on the fun and begun to
suggest some isolated storms developing across the far eastern
Rolling Plains this afternoon. Although the chance of
thunderstorms developing remains slim at this point, it cannot be
ruled out. Especially with a fair amount of moisture present east
of the dryline with dew point temperatures in the 60s and 70s
expected, some forcing aloft, and lift provided from the dryline.
Therefore, have opted for a slight chance mention for
thunderstorms across portions of our far eastern column of
counties where the better forcing and moisture resides.

Dry, warm, and windy conditions west of the dryline will lead to
critical fire weather conditions across the South Plains and far
southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. Therefore a Red Flag
Warning is in effect from noon today through midnight Sunday. Do
your part and avoid activities that may cause a spark to avoid
wildfires!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Long term forecast remains on track for a more active weather
pattern for most of next week. Sunday morning a 990 mb surface low
will slide into Kansas which will shift winds around to the west and
northwest and not be quite as strong as today. This will keep high
temperatures a degree or two cooler on Sunday with most locations
topping out in the 90s. The dry airmass will remain in place though
so another day of at least near-critical fire weather conditions is
expected.

Upper-level heights will begin to increase over the forecast area on
Monday as a ridge begins to move into the central CONUS. Fortunately
these height rises won`t lead to a bump up in high temperatures as
it will be offset by a surface cold front that will swing through
the region Monday morning. Hence high temperatures Monday will be
slightly cooler once again in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Surface high
pressure will settle into NW Oklahoma Monday night which will veer
winds around to the southeast across the forecast area. This will
allow Gulf of Mexico moisture to begin streaming back into West
Texas. Despite a ridge remaining overhead through the end of next
week, it is the end of May and with a dryline in place somewhere in
our forecast area and a few embedded shortwaves several days of
strong to severe thunderstorms look possible Tuesday through next
weekend. Obviously the more important details such as timing of the
shortwaves, amount of capping remaining in place, and location of
strongest lift with the dryline all remain uncertain this far out
but next week is shaping up to be an active stretch of weather. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Winds
will begin to veer out of the southwest this morning where they
will begin to increase in speed around 20 to 25 knots with gusts
up to 35 knots. Confidence remains low at this time on the
possibility of thunderstorm development at or in the vicinity of
KCDS late this afternoon and evening. Therefore have opted for no
TAF mention at this time. As we head into the overnight hours,
LLWS will be possible at KCDS as the LLJ begins to ramp up.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

The dryline will track eastward across the forecast area where it is
expected to stall across the eastern Rolling Plains this afternoon.
West of the dryline, strong southwesterly winds around 20 to 30
mph, with gusts up to 40 mph, will work to boost temperatures in
the 90s which will lead to a very dry air mass. These strong
winds, warm temperatures, and drier air mass will lead to minimum
RH values in the single digits this afternoon across the far
southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. RFTI values on the
order of 5-8 can be expected across areas west of the I-27
corridor thanks to the dry and breezy conditions in place.
Therefore a Red Flag Warning remains in effect from noon today
through midnight Sunday.

Overnight humidity recoveries will be poor on the Caprock only
rebounding into the 20-30 percent range. While winds will be
slightly lower on Sunday the dry airmass will remain leading to
another day of at least near-critical fire weather conditions.
Sustained westerly winds of 15-20 mph combined with afternoon
relative humidity values in the upper single digits will still
lead to RFTIs of 3-5 on the Caprock.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to midnight CDT tonight for
TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...12