693
FXUS64 KLUB 170511
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1211 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Upper-level low is currently spinning over central New Mexico and
will continue to approach the forecast area this evening. As it does
so, lift aloft will continue to increase. As of 2:30 pm,
thunderstorms are developing along the higher terrain of eastern New
Mexico and will slowly advance towards the forecast area. A tongue
of instability is present near the Texas / New Mexico state line
which should allow these storms to continue to strengthen as they
approach our forecast area. With relatively cool surface conditions
though behind the cold front most of this activity will remain
elevated hence hail and heavy rainfall will be the primary threats
with this activity. There are some indications that this activity
will attempt to congeal into a line as we go into the evening which
may increase the wind threat however with a stabilizing boundary
layer widespread severe gusts are not anticipated. This activity
should weaken near the I-27/US-87 corridor as the storms outrun the
instability axis with general showers and thunderstorms continuing
into the Rolling Plains. Lift will continue to shift east overnight
bringing an end to our precipitation chances late tonight. The upper-
level trough will continue hanging over the forecast area on Friday
although with clearing skies and increasing heights high
temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Enough
moisture and lift may remain over the eastern Rolling Plains on
Friday afternoon for some additional thunderstorm development
however it currently appears that this should be just east of our
forecast area. /WI

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Upper-level ridging will begin to expand over the forecast area
Saturday and Sunday. This will lead to increasing temperatures
Saturday and Sunday with high temperatures mostly in the 90s,
however a few locations may hit the century mark on Sunday across
the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains. The upper-level ridge
is not expected to become as established overhead as previous
forecast guidance has indicated with southwest flow aloft returning
over our area by Sunday. A few shortwaves are expected to move
through the flow Sunday through next week however with warm
temperatures aloft a cap is expected to be in place and with weak
surface forcing it remains uncertain as to whether any thunderstorm
activity will develop across primarily the Rolling Plains. Otherwise
temperatures will remain warm through the middle of next week. A
more impressive shortwave should approach the area around the middle
of next week which may lead to more widespread thunderstorm activity
but again confidence remains low at this time however a surface cold
front will move south Tuesday bringing slightly cooler temperatures
to the area on Wednesday. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR will prevail at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW, with light and variable
winds through Friday afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...09