938
FXUS64 KLUB 222327
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

The cold front that moved through this morning has stalled this
afternoon stretching along a line from Sterling City to Abilene to
north of Fort Worth. Thunderstorms have developed already along the
frontal boundary where there is enough lift and instability to
support supercells. Meanwhile, across the forecast area temperatures
are remaining mild in the 70s to lower 80s amongst the post frontal
airmass. Despite the frontal passage, dewpoints across the far
southeast Rolling Plains remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s and
current satellite imagery reveals some midlevel clouds and moisture.
With daytime heating under mostly clear skies, there remains a small
window for elevated instability this afternoon across the
southeastern Rolling Plains. MUCAPE values are around 1500-2000 J/kg
and elongated hodographs indicate an abundance of shear, especially
with the near 90-100 knot 200mb jet overhead. An isolated
thunderstorm or two may develop behind the front this afternoon and
may move over the far southeast Rolling Plains (i.e. Stonewall
County). Main threats with any elevated storm that develops will be
large hail, but a strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out either.

Northeast surface winds will veer to the southwest overnight tonight
and into tomorrow morning and low level moisture will return across
the area. Low clouds will build in along and east of the I-27
corridor. The morning dewpoints in the 60s will begin to mix
eastward through the day, which will clear out the low clouds by mid-
morning. Breezy downsloping surface winds will give way to hot
temperatures in the 90s. As the next upper low swings over the
Northern Rockies tomorrow, upper level divergence will develop over
the far southeast Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains and
give way to large scale lift. However, most models have the dryline
mixing east of Rolling Plains into the afternoon hours with a slim
chance for any thunderstorm development tomorrow. A sliver of 10
PoPs were added into the eastern Rolling Plains and far southeast
Texas Panhandle for the small potential of the dryline mixing slower
through the day and residing in the aforementioned area during the
mid-afternoon hours when storms would potentially develop along and
east of the dryline. If a storm were to develop, large hail and
damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out across the far column of
counties (Childress County down to Stonewall County). Storm motion
will be fairly rapid, so any storm that develops would quickly east
of the previous area mentioned. West of the dryline conditions will
be hot, dry and breezy with elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Generally quiet weather is expected into much of next week. A dry,
westerly flow will bring above-average temperatures and breezy
conditions through the weekend. The warmer temperatures combined
with humidities in the single digits will lead to fire weather
concerns across much of the region. A weak cold front will move
through early Monday morning. This is expected to only slightly drop
temperatures and not bring any moisture. The next meaningful chances
of showers and thunderstorms will not occur until mid next week
with an upper shortwave and a more moist southerly flow. However,
it remains much too early to determine any specific details.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Low level winds will turn to the southeast overnight tonight
drawing moisture into the region. This will bring in low CIGS to
all TAF sites although the height of these CIGS is more uncertain.
At the moment, it appears as though CIGS will be in MVFR but a
slight chance will exist of IFR CIGS closer to day break on
Thursday morning. After low CIGS dissipate mid to late morning,
breezy southwest winds will move into all TAF sites.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...01