530
FXUS64 KLUB 161749
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1249 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A mid/upper level trough over the Four Corners early this morning
will move eastward across New Mexico today and across the Panhandle-
South Plains region tonight, becoming more positively-tilted as it
does so. The forecast remains on track with increasingly numerous to
widespread showers developing, particularly this afternoon across
western zones as increasing deep layer ascent impinges on the area,
with activity spreading eastward through the afternoon and overnight
areas. No surface focus is expected to concentrate convection in any
particular area as a cold front will have shifted to the south of
the forecast area by that time. However. fairly healthy elevated
instability is expected to be present this afternoon, especially
across the southern third to half of the forecast area where some
indications exist that as much as 2500-3000 J/kg of CAPE will be
present focused near the 800-750 mb level. Shear numbers are not
great, but look to improve some when discounting the levels below
the elevated instability. Thus, some strong updrafts and possibly
some supercellular characteristics are not out of the question with
large hail, and to a lesser extent severe wind gusts (due to the
relatively cool sub-cloud layer), possible. Progged instability
quickly decreases after sunset, likely limiting severe potential at
that point, although mid/upper dynamics continue to favor high
precip chances through much of the night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The southwestern end of the positively-tilted trough that will bring
today`s showers and thunderstorms will linger from the Big Bend to
northwest Texas on Friday with a slight chance that diurnal
destabilization aided by cooler mid level temperatures associated
with the mid/upper level trough will result in a few thunderstorms
across the southeastern part of the forecast area. This trough will
finally shift to the east of the forecast area Friday evening,
ushering in a pattern change with short wave ridging moving overhead
on Saturday and remaining in place at least through Monday.
Increasing heights and thicknesses (those values progged to peak
Sunday and Monday) in addition to low level warm advection and hot
and dry air off the deck moving in from the southwest all point to
the hottest temperatures of the year and a lack of precipitation. An
upper level trough is then progged to open and lift across the Four
Corners region which should bring a modest decrease to heights and
thicknesses on Tuesday with a slight downward trend in temperatures,
but this trough ejecting across the central Plains, coming into
phase with a trough over south-central Canada and the northern
Plains is progged to push a cold front southward through the
forecast area Tuesday or Tuesday night with a respite from the
heat on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

MVFR ceilings continue to slowly dissipate this afternoon at KPVW
and KLBB. Once they do so, VFR conditions will prevail through the
majority of this TAF period. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms is possible at all the TAF sites this evening. This
activity may briefly drop the visibility due to heavy rainfall.
This activity will come to an end late tonight with dry conditions
remaining through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...58