Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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082 FXUS64 KLUB 011935 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 235 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday morning) Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Forecast area remains fairly stable early this afternoon in the wake of the morning showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures have been steadily warming thanks to the clear skies though and with dewpoints still in the upper 50s to lower 60s instability will continue to increase as we go through the late afternoon. Aloft, ridging remains in place over the forecast area so this subsidence combined with a cap around 650 mb will keep our forecast area dry through the early evening hours. However, as a shortwave works through the ridge this evening, thunderstorms will develop across the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and then shift east. The environment ahead of this activity will be conducive to maintain strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts being the biggest concern. Theta-e axis is expected across the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains this evening so this corridor would be most favored to see a complex of storms to roll across. Activity is expected to diminish early tomorrow morning however similar to this morning nuisance showers/thunderstorms may persist through sunrise although the severe threat will be minimal. Surface troughing will increase tomorrow across eastern New Mexico which will veer winds to a southerly to southwesterly direction. These downsloping winds will help to boost high temperatures into the low to mid 90s on the Caprock tomorrow while east of the escarpment high temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s. This will also help to mix the dryline farther east than the previous few days with the dryline situated near the TX/NM state line by the early afternoon. Convective temperatures are expected to be breached by the mid to late afternoon hours within an environment characterized by MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg and effective bulk shear values of around 40 kts. Obviously any outflow boundary that remains in the forecast area would be a focus area for thunderstorm development otherwise the dryline should be the primary forcing mechanism. With nearly straight hodographs, splitting supercells would initially be favored with large hail up to tennis ball size and damaging wind gusts to 75 mph. This activity will spread east through the night and as it does so may begin to cluster as a cold pool strengthens with primarily a damaging wind threat across the Rolling Plains. The other concern with this activity is that with several rounds of thunderstorms over the past few days localized flash flooding would be possible as any right moving supercell will be fairly slow moving leading to heavy rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms should come to an end around midnight with dry conditions continuing through the overnight hours. Some patchy fog may be possible Monday morning especially for locations that see heavier rainfall Sunday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Monday afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Hot and dry conditions will return early next week with zonal flow aloft and southwesterly surface winds. Triple-digit high temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday across much of the area with the latter being the slightly hotter day, potentially breaking daily records. A "cold" front will move through late Tuesday evening, although this will neither bring precipitation nor much cooler temperatures as highs will still reach the mid 90s on Wednesday. The next meaningful chance of showers and thunderstorms will be later Thursday with a moist low-level ESE flow and weak upper waves. The unsettled pattern looks to continue Friday and into the weekend although details remain uncertain. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the majority of this TAF period. Southeasterly winds may become a bit breezy this afternoon but will diminish late tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form in eastern New Mexico this afternoon and shift east through the evening. Confidence on a direct impact at LBB and PVW continues to remain too low at this time to include a prevailing mention in the TAF. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...58